{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6339bbda-eb95-490b-97bd-df5b68fe505a", "symbol": "XESJ", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Japan ESG UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.557, "architecture_energy": 34.619, "architecture_maturity": 63.699, "architecture_confidence": 88.675, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.41, "rotation_up": 35.83, "upward_expansion": 59.23, "deceleration": 88.3, "rotation_down": 27.2, "downward_expansion": 20.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.315167, 24.343409, 24.035512, 23.591667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 25.262501, "trend_reference": 23.077583, "distance_from_trend": 0.094677, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.054207, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.325823, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.57818, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125404, "excess_performance": 0.074168, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094677, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044853, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.325823, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051563, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045782, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009756, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125404, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.085132, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45164, "relative_activity": 3.536048, "balance": 1.085132, "dry_up": 1.807543, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029185, "annualized_volatility": 0.230362, "from_high_reference": -0.105793, "from_low_reference": 0.289561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.077583, "fair_value_reference": 19.054207, "structural_low": 20.67, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.022786, "positive_rate": 0.928571, "directional_follow_through": 0.928571, "median_excess_return": 0.015077, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.08206, "worst_return": -0.011941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.037653, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.020816, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.184454, "worst_return": -0.05621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038364, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.024336, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130766, "worst_return": -0.110656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019327, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049479, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022816, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069798, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029491, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0096, "active": 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12015.45, "trend": 22.87875, "fair_value": 18.936364, "relative_strength": 0.285453, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.648325, "energy": 32.171108, "activity_lines": [ 24.042334, 24.212591, 23.7845, 23.379554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.875, "volume": 2180, "typical_volume": 10615.35, "trend": 22.971, "fair_value": 18.990505, "relative_strength": -0.741761, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.404854, "energy": 24.068647, "activity_lines": [ 23.923, 24.154046, 23.849691, 23.443828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.262501, "volume": 45164, "typical_volume": 12772.45, "trend": 23.077583, "fair_value": 19.054207, "relative_strength": 4.57818, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.557039, "energy": 34.618699, "activity_lines": [ 24.315167, 24.343409, 24.035512, 23.591667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }