{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6339faeb-61ad-478a-be9c-c1c130493056", "symbol": "003041", "name": "Zhejiang Truelove Vogue Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.292, "architecture_energy": 73.813, "architecture_maturity": 27.444, "architecture_confidence": 90.646, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.12, "rotation_up": 14.3, "upward_expansion": 17.05, "deceleration": 38.71, "rotation_down": 68.09, "downward_expansion": 90.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.034, 40.654909, 45.840143, 49.006688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 42.810001, "trend_reference": 53.052, "distance_from_trend": -0.193056, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.950307, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.588479, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.508332, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.356047, "excess_performance": -0.363447, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193056, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011552, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.588479, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.053168, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065083, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.38362, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.356047, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.45446, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17028463, "relative_activity": 1.225083, "balance": 0.45446, "dry_up": 0.979681, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13462, "annualized_volatility": 0.833234, "from_high_reference": -0.421486, "from_low_reference": 1.025346 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.052, "fair_value_reference": 26.950307, "structural_low": 31.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.049612, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.012795, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.623911, "worst_return": -0.142212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.124502, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.056992, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.777162, "worst_return": -0.143612, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.14657, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 1.093819, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.381461, "worst_return": -0.057833, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.043845, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116817, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019355, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.279932, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.849448, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-20", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 33.82, "volume": 11857515, "typical_volume": 16401225.85, "trend": 53.667667, "fair_value": 26.624863, "relative_strength": -22.937924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.448944, "energy": 83.049967, "activity_lines": [ 38.759333, 42.064, 47.78, 50.703054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.0, "volume": 14161895, "typical_volume": 14804570.7, "trend": 53.436, "fair_value": 26.772048, "relative_strength": -12.295209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.114956, "energy": 78.790959, "activity_lines": [ 37.894, 40.739818, 46.505191, 49.692237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.810001, "volume": 17028463, "typical_volume": 13899841.45, "trend": 53.052, "fair_value": 26.950307, "relative_strength": -6.508332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.291781, "energy": 73.812708, "activity_lines": [ 39.034, 40.654909, 45.840143, 49.006688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }