{ "ticker": { "uuid": "633a4b7e-b097-40d2-8183-29cca9d2abcb", "symbol": "DRAI", "name": "DRACO EVOLUTION AI ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.274, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.521, "architecture_energy": 18.333, "architecture_maturity": 57.418, "architecture_confidence": 77.215, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.96, "rotation_up": 22.83, "upward_expansion": 49.22, "deceleration": 83.55, "rotation_down": 28.38, "downward_expansion": 24.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.4282, 33.562407, 33.754993, 33.077068 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 33.9225, "trend_reference": 32.189005, "distance_from_trend": 0.053854, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.222476, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.246121, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.336838, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.123936, "excess_performance": -0.001689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053854, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035744, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.246121, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095741, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102878, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123936, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.511524, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11670, "relative_activity": 0.874098, "balance": 0.511524, "dry_up": 0.396059, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028022, "annualized_volatility": 0.168697, "from_high_reference": -0.054678, "from_low_reference": 0.258643 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.189005, "fair_value_reference": 27.222476, "structural_low": 27.45, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.007541, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.001649, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.030417, "worst_return": -0.021196, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.175656, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.088428, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.175656, "worst_return": 0.175656, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016607, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025724, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053986, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021912, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"close": 33.3031, "volume": 1901, "typical_volume": 15750.25, "trend": 31.913499, "fair_value": 27.048957, "relative_strength": -0.268041, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.290781, "energy": 24.795466, "activity_lines": [ 33.636305, 33.950215, 33.612779, 32.814687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.1345, "volume": 2316, "typical_volume": 13424.35, "trend": 31.995143, "fair_value": 27.105832, "relative_strength": -0.175291, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.66008, "energy": 22.0506, "activity_lines": [ 33.412376, 33.746317, 33.655574, 32.893461 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.0034, "volume": 5264, "typical_volume": 12983.55, "trend": 32.084862, "fair_value": 27.160439, "relative_strength": -1.640265, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.927284, "energy": 17.609923, "activity_lines": [ 33.250453, 33.552673, 33.66973, 32.95851 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.9225, "volume": 11670, "typical_volume": 13350.9, "trend": 32.189005, "fair_value": 27.222476, "relative_strength": -2.336838, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.521106, "energy": 18.333424, "activity_lines": [ 33.4282, 33.562407, 33.754993, 33.077068 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }