{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6340f3c4-6c4a-48a9-ab71-ae9b9aafd0f6", "symbol": "688265", "name": "Shanghai Model Organisms Center, Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 77.095, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.175, "architecture_energy": 9.521, "architecture_maturity": 90.94, "architecture_confidence": 67.676, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.36, "rotation_up": 29.39, "upward_expansion": 20.56, "deceleration": 44.12, "rotation_down": 24.14, "downward_expansion": 59.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.363001, 35.167777, 35.973218, 37.716245 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 42.900002, "trend_reference": 40.344027, "distance_from_trend": 0.063354, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.943417, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.263868, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.52919, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.082353, "excess_performance": -0.039149, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063354, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065548, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.263868, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059966, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025292, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089205, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082353, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.377509, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7958558, "relative_activity": 2.263496, "balance": 0.377509, "dry_up": 2.106231, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10027, "annualized_volatility": 0.512478, "from_high_reference": -0.410066, "from_low_reference": 0.399488 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.344027, "fair_value_reference": 33.943417, "structural_low": 30.654077, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.011159, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.015833, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.139966, "worst_return": -0.149034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.063234, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026364, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.160196, "worst_return": -0.187079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.122166, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.148867, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.198915, "worst_return": -0.339554, 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"down", "direction": -57.844613, "energy": 36.886952, "activity_lines": [ 33.927003, 33.715806, 35.967416, 38.057431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.66, "volume": 3894954, "typical_volume": 3204811.7, "trend": 40.281027, "fair_value": 33.90737, "relative_strength": -23.62233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.946605, "energy": 39.137595, "activity_lines": [ 33.480285, 33.456337, 35.456698, 37.547279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.900002, "volume": 7958558, "typical_volume": 3516047.45, "trend": 40.344027, "fair_value": 33.943417, "relative_strength": -2.52919, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.174798, "energy": 9.520789, "activity_lines": [ 36.363001, 35.167777, 35.973218, 37.716245 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }