{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6343f73b-8a4e-4442-91ea-e894d83d0319", "symbol": "EHTH", "name": "eHealth Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.56, "architecture_energy": 59.68, "architecture_maturity": 70.207, "architecture_confidence": 87.086, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.53, "rotation_up": 12.83, "upward_expansion": 11.62, "deceleration": 39.32, "rotation_down": 68.42, "downward_expansion": 87.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.386, 1.471273, 1.568381, 1.601011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.37, "trend_reference": 1.773667, "distance_from_trend": -0.227589, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.056346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.729053, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.881604, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.382883, "excess_performance": -0.570337, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.227589, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.320087, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.729053, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066277, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.578816, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037708, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.382883, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.759856, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1499781, "relative_activity": 0.731937, "balance": 0.759856, "dry_up": 0.541599, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.185733, "annualized_volatility": 0.862785, "from_high_reference": -0.767402, "from_low_reference": 0.144337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.773667, "fair_value_reference": 5.056346, "structural_low": 1.1972, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.082353, "positive_rate": 0.365854, "directional_follow_through": 0.609756, "median_excess_return": -0.078508, "regime_survival": 0.926829, "best_return": 0.442997, "worst_return": -0.480045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.056098, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.142656, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.684685, "worst_return": -0.617681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.355913, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.269856, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.123932, "worst_return": -0.642006, "sufficient": true 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"down", "direction": -48.969632, "energy": 30.501985, "activity_lines": [ 1.611333, 1.639455, 1.656095, 1.761634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.49, "volume": 1082150, "typical_volume": 2685904.8, "trend": 2.051667, "fair_value": 5.190256, "relative_strength": -54.850006, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.174459, "energy": 36.211326, "activity_lines": [ 1.561333, 1.606545, 1.644095, 1.719204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.34, "volume": 1025150, "typical_volume": 2261183.15, "trend": 1.959, "fair_value": 5.151603, "relative_strength": -57.910032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.423049, "energy": 41.79387, "activity_lines": [ 1.482667, 1.553636, 1.616905, 1.67329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.33, "volume": 831985, "typical_volume": 2145578.7, "trend": 1.861333, "fair_value": 5.104551, "relative_strength": -57.77467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.784008, "energy": 55.740025, "activity_lines": [ 1.421333, 1.506545, 1.59019, 1.63271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.37, "volume": 1499781, "typical_volume": 2049057.25, "trend": 1.773667, "fair_value": 5.056346, "relative_strength": -57.881604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.560177, "energy": 59.680235, "activity_lines": [ 1.386, 1.471273, 1.568381, 1.601011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }