{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6348ce0d-060d-4282-85fd-c0b17f1bacb6", "symbol": "MONI", "name": "Monivent AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.188, "architecture_energy": 68.032, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.656, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.66, "rotation_up": 9.98, "upward_expansion": 15.33, "deceleration": 37.5, "rotation_down": 69.81, "downward_expansion": 88.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1812, 0.219945, 0.263143, 0.28209 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.187, "trend_reference": 0.301, "distance_from_trend": -0.378738, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.445489, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.580237, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.458001, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.26378, "excess_performance": -0.325274, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.378738, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053955, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.580237, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079611, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.41458, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120637, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26378, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.172426, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1111581, "relative_activity": 0.633013, "balance": 0.172426, "dry_up": 0.625685, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.46812, "annualized_volatility": 1.897066, "from_high_reference": -0.640385, "from_low_reference": 1.077778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.301, "fair_value_reference": 0.445489, "structural_low": 0.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.074074, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": -0.072282, "regime_survival": 0.897436, "best_return": 1.1, "worst_return": -0.692036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.162197, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.227522, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.594667, "worst_return": -0.728997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.310345, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.317093, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.132576, "worst_return": -0.71255, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 0.222467, 0.285436, 0.297948, 0.307417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.176, "volume": 1046394, "typical_volume": 1701074.45, "trend": 0.311933, "fair_value": 0.476102, "relative_strength": -43.529229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.856337, "energy": 67.617944, "activity_lines": [ 0.192067, 0.259618, 0.284962, 0.298348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.18, "volume": 440175, "typical_volume": 1705339.4, "trend": 0.307067, "fair_value": 0.459613, "relative_strength": -42.786004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.427921, "energy": 71.460572, "activity_lines": [ 0.1778, 0.237873, 0.273276, 0.289837 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.187, "volume": 1111581, "typical_volume": 1756015.85, "trend": 0.301, "fair_value": 0.445489, "relative_strength": -41.458001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.187994, "energy": 68.032219, "activity_lines": [ 0.1812, 0.219945, 0.263143, 0.28209 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }