{ "ticker": { "uuid": "634bf70a-1e3f-4f73-92f9-de0082edca35", "symbol": "688588", "name": "Linkage Software Co., LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.956, "architecture_energy": 49.53, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.134, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.88, "rotation_up": 26.42, "upward_expansion": 14.9, "deceleration": 66.95, "rotation_down": 49.88, "downward_expansion": 76.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.272667, 9.249322, 9.874168, 10.57237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.95, "trend_reference": 11.694889, "distance_from_trend": -0.149201, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.081442, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.176423, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.523016, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.311895, "excess_performance": -0.268691, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.149201, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144525, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 8.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.028534, "positive_rate": 0.354839, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": -0.027331, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.54142, "worst_return": -0.224624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.122672, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.104078, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.618012, "worst_return": -0.308869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.241107, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.186622, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.118258, "worst_return": -0.465086, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.985861, "energy": 77.205736, "activity_lines": [ 9.035333, 9.437874, 10.305644, 11.105187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.35, "volume": 19147942, "typical_volume": 15267257.3, "trend": 12.002556, "fair_value": 12.128287, "relative_strength": -38.350692, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.064419, "energy": 71.180092, "activity_lines": [ 8.753333, 9.153173, 10.054231, 10.855775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.5, "volume": 20427539, "typical_volume": 15475726.7, "trend": 11.840222, "fair_value": 12.102563, "relative_strength": -29.534272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.198651, "energy": 63.280057, "activity_lines": [ 8.952667, 9.140192, 9.934533, 10.69432 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.95, "volume": 24607202, "typical_volume": 15924014.55, "trend": 11.694889, "fair_value": 12.081442, "relative_strength": -27.523016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.955649, "energy": 49.5297, "activity_lines": [ 9.272667, 9.249322, 9.874168, 10.57237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }