{ "ticker": { "uuid": "634c62b9-d62b-40c4-b173-c83ee2f26944", "symbol": "HYUC", "name": "iSh B $ HYC Bd UCITSETF CHF HA", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.125, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.285, "architecture_energy": 26.518, "architecture_maturity": 32.008, "architecture_confidence": 80.55, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.12, "rotation_up": 19.27, "upward_expansion": 18.86, "deceleration": 41.23, "rotation_down": 51.65, "downward_expansion": 66.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.258933, 5.264975, 5.267105, 5.265795 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.2702, "trend_reference": 5.270753, "distance_from_trend": -0.000105, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.200629, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.013377, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.978855, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.00521, "excess_performance": -0.088093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000105, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000563, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.013377, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001311, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067005, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00521, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.58012, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23415, "relative_activity": 0.756096, "balance": 0.58012, "dry_up": 1.764078, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004364, "annualized_volatility": 0.037206, "from_high_reference": -0.014289, "from_low_reference": 0.022308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.270753, "fair_value_reference": 5.200629, "structural_low": 5.1552, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.000265, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028316, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.002811, "worst_return": -0.002992, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.006136, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.094027, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.006136, "worst_return": -0.006136, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.207138, "energy": 12.197177, "activity_lines": [ 5.267853, 5.270462, 5.26845, 5.268203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.2382, "volume": 19171, "typical_volume": 33438.95, "trend": 5.271953, "fair_value": 5.199953, "relative_strength": -9.626819, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.662234, "energy": 34.475132, "activity_lines": [ 5.256853, 5.264567, 5.266269, 5.265908 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.2702, "volume": 23415, "typical_volume": 30968.3, "trend": 5.270753, "fair_value": 5.200629, "relative_strength": -9.978855, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.284521, "energy": 26.517569, "activity_lines": [ 5.258933, 5.264975, 5.267105, 5.265795 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }