{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6356fb74-b91b-4273-a431-bd69f2fb16f9", "symbol": "DHH", "name": "Dominion Hosting Holding S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.044, "architecture_energy": 35.792, "architecture_maturity": 61.269, "architecture_confidence": 83.325, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.47, "rotation_up": 32.26, "upward_expansion": 63.39, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 27.21, "downward_expansion": 18.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.04, 27.283636, 26.292381, 25.323226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.5, "trend_reference": 24.35, "distance_from_trend": 0.088296, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.304167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.243888, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.41607, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.122881, "excess_performance": -0.04801, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088296, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07553, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.243888, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105793, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034161, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038914, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122881, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.100916, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9697, "relative_activity": 0.49225, "balance": 6.100916, "dry_up": 0.536794, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053411, "annualized_volatility": 0.293167, "from_high_reference": -0.086207, "from_low_reference": 0.355499 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.35, "fair_value_reference": 21.304167, "structural_low": 19.9, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.0033, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.042711, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.113333, "worst_return": -0.185629, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.028571, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.079475, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.043103, "worst_return": -0.116667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.016667, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.129483, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.208054, "worst_return": -0.162963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014493, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061674, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061224, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038793, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104167, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004717, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097872, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034749, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.5, "volume": 606, "typical_volume": 2392.85, "trend": 15.625, "fair_value": 14.463042, "relative_strength": -8.042739, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.499442, 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24.001818, 23.242381, 23.08043 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 27.1, "volume": 880, "typical_volume": 17361.5, "trend": 22.913333, "fair_value": 20.700961, "relative_strength": 3.921487, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.236132, "energy": 86.530242, "activity_lines": [ 25.686666, 24.645455, 23.634286, 23.36086 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 27.9, "volume": 8526, "typical_volume": 17348.5, "trend": 23.163333, "fair_value": 20.781731, "relative_strength": 4.200722, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.542858, "energy": 92.229345, "activity_lines": [ 26.673333, 25.369091, 24.090476, 23.682581 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 27.799999, "volume": 2044, "typical_volume": 17201.6, "trend": 23.38, "fair_value": 20.858654, "relative_strength": 6.871871, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.69257, "energy": 91.441905, "activity_lines": [ 27.3, 25.963636, 24.519524, 23.98172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.4, "volume": 2780, "typical_volume": 17216.45, "trend": 23.6, "fair_value": 20.931731, "relative_strength": 2.161406, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.071455, "energy": 87.878507, "activity_lines": [ 27.466666, 26.394545, 24.890476, 24.241075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.1, "volume": 19631, "typical_volume": 17960.2, "trend": 23.836667, "fair_value": 21.009295, "relative_strength": 4.975757, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.801604, "energy": 89.474253, "activity_lines": [ 27.76, 26.881818, 25.307143, 24.531398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.799999, "volume": 21020, "typical_volume": 18921.7, "trend": 23.986667, "fair_value": 21.088141, "relative_strength": 5.128037, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.860933, "energy": 79.016687, "activity_lines": [ 27.806666, 27.225454, 25.663809, 24.787097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.4, "volume": 6200, "typical_volume": 19105.15, "trend": 24.133333, "fair_value": 21.164423, "relative_strength": 3.617849, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.683733, "energy": 59.078028, "activity_lines": [ 27.673333, 27.412727, 25.950952, 25.007312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.799999, "volume": 5381, "typical_volume": 19269.25, "trend": 24.27, "fair_value": 21.234295, "relative_strength": 0.607492, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.311582, "energy": 48.470321, "activity_lines": [ 27.373333, 27.410909, 26.149047, 25.179355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.5, "volume": 9697, "typical_volume": 19699.35, "trend": 24.35, "fair_value": 21.304167, "relative_strength": -3.41607, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.04425, "energy": 35.792263, "activity_lines": [ 27.04, 27.283636, 26.292381, 25.323226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }