{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63611c7d-42af-47f0-b499-30363d2537df", "symbol": "300564", "name": "Zhubo Design Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.811, "architecture_energy": 46.091, "architecture_maturity": 43.031, "architecture_confidence": 90.191, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.82, "rotation_up": 20.82, "upward_expansion": 6.63, "deceleration": 57.6, "rotation_down": 52.86, "downward_expansion": 77.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.725333, 11.916076, 12.940758, 13.618337 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.0, "trend_reference": 14.488458, "distance_from_trend": -0.171755, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.664432, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.052464, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.203779, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.229782, "excess_performance": -0.237182, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.171755, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08076, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.052464, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.369507, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242038, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100974, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.229782, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.528109, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20039906, "relative_activity": 1.364449, "balance": 0.528109, "dry_up": 1.412443, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129774, "annualized_volatility": 0.45687, "from_high_reference": -0.357602, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.488458, "fair_value_reference": 12.664432, "structural_low": 10.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.028089, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.014218, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.192349, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.007015, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.078481, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.555555, "worst_return": -0.187335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010961, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.061989, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.492518, "worst_return": 0.006231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 12.32, "volume": 11859248, "typical_volume": 12983693.4, "trend": 14.979458, "fair_value": 12.661803, "relative_strength": -29.235805, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.64902, "energy": 73.623254, "activity_lines": [ 12.262702, 12.905566, 13.897211, 14.4231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.24, "volume": 29188014, "typical_volume": 14044137.6, "trend": 14.886125, "fair_value": 12.665957, "relative_strength": -22.192384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.140353, "energy": 50.199752, "activity_lines": [ 12.279956, 12.623325, 13.677336, 14.246361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.96, "volume": 17749100, "typical_volume": 14152744.6, "trend": 14.744791, "fair_value": 12.662336, "relative_strength": -30.049556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.676466, "energy": 51.786758, "activity_lines": [ 11.874667, 12.185639, 13.355127, 13.993063 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.55, "volume": 16002200, "typical_volume": 14337780.1, "trend": 14.613458, "fair_value": 12.661971, "relative_strength": -24.153425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.042639, "energy": 49.993129, "activity_lines": [ 11.732667, 11.967881, 13.1153, 13.786947 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.0, "volume": 20039906, "typical_volume": 14687183.4, "trend": 14.488458, "fair_value": 12.664432, "relative_strength": -24.203779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.811125, "energy": 46.090645, "activity_lines": [ 11.725333, 11.916076, 12.940758, 13.618337 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }