{ "ticker": { "uuid": "636366bc-6497-4dc9-b7be-ca77874aa204", "symbol": "ALEMV", "name": "Emova Group SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.932, "architecture_energy": 32.306, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.882, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.44, "rotation_up": 36.73, "upward_expansion": 63.55, "deceleration": 68.26, "rotation_down": 25.52, "downward_expansion": 15.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.793333, 0.796455, 0.763833, 0.733097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.79, "trend_reference": 0.695833, "distance_from_trend": 0.135329, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.829452, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.047564, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.796639, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.144928, "excess_performance": 0.091616, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.135329, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118104, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.047564, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.190408, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.147966, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097213, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.144928, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.035137, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2838, "relative_activity": 0.528359, "balance": 1.035137, "dry_up": 1.935081, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081305, "annualized_volatility": 0.335361, "from_high_reference": -0.059524, "from_low_reference": 0.54902 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.695833, "fair_value_reference": 0.829452, "structural_low": 0.58, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003145, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.04052, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.152174, "worst_return": -0.158996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.130719, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.160766, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.174603, "worst_return": -0.188285, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.296237, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.292042, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.213389, "worst_return": -0.379085, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"orange", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067961, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.123711, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.084211, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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72.532007, "energy": 87.599202, "activity_lines": [ 0.800333, 0.768818, 0.719952, 0.693247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.8, "volume": 7469, "typical_volume": 5511.25, "trend": 0.664333, "fair_value": 0.838138, "relative_strength": 23.22191, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.312899, "energy": 74.578368, "activity_lines": [ 0.805667, 0.78, 0.730714, 0.702516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.8, "volume": 10245, "typical_volume": 4751.6, "trend": 0.672667, "fair_value": 0.835157, "relative_strength": 22.641533, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.560164, "energy": 56.592806, "activity_lines": [ 0.804, 0.788273, 0.740667, 0.711269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.81, "volume": 9172, "typical_volume": 4798.4, "trend": 0.681, "fair_value": 0.833202, "relative_strength": 23.22196, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.550351, "energy": 53.902942, "activity_lines": [ 0.805333, 0.795727, 0.750667, 0.720129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.78, "volume": 19321, "typical_volume": 5438.75, "trend": 0.688, "fair_value": 0.831151, "relative_strength": 16.377629, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.332545, "energy": 40.064861, "activity_lines": [ 0.796667, 0.795545, 0.757119, 0.726516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.79, "volume": 2838, "typical_volume": 5371.35, "trend": 0.695833, "fair_value": 0.829452, "relative_strength": 14.796639, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.932057, "energy": 32.305847, "activity_lines": [ 0.793333, 0.796455, 0.763833, 0.733097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }