{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6364d51e-d9b0-428b-9839-aab8b77367a0", "symbol": "IBI-F61", "name": "Psagot Mutual Funds Ltd. - I.B.I. SAL (4D) LBMA Gold Price AM", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.15, "architecture_energy": 63.57, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 61.483, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.87, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 47.37, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.573253, 26.377135, 770.099522, 1372.893227 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.403701, "trend_reference": 2079.649503, "distance_from_trend": -0.986823, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2136.88029, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987176, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.972357, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.991577, "excess_performance": -1.020478, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.986823, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.317441, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987176, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.302487, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.989724, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.776482, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.991577, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.707779, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53533, "relative_activity": 1.463084, "balance": 0.707779, "dry_up": 0.940525, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.430112, "annualized_volatility": 6.351795, "from_high_reference": -0.992594, "from_low_reference": 0.084582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2079.649503, "fair_value_reference": 2136.88029, "structural_low": 25.266599, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.010158, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.001891, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.051145, "worst_return": -0.035577, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.065392, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.075325, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.097175, "worst_return": -8e-05, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.112883, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.113797, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128678, "worst_return": 0.097087, "sufficient": false 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"fair_value": 2156.578014, "relative_strength": -99.080824, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.963663, "energy": 68.011644, "activity_lines": [ 26.084467, 173.432564, 1091.30546, 1656.990895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.311499, "volume": 21227, "typical_volume": 38071.95, "trend": 2179.781717, "fair_value": 2146.741677, "relative_strength": -99.033169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.571187, "energy": 67.401115, "activity_lines": [ 26.168207, 74.675935, 922.609366, 1511.756325 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.403701, "volume": 53533, "typical_volume": 36589.15, "trend": 2079.649503, "fair_value": 2136.88029, "relative_strength": -98.972357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.149805, "energy": 63.570419, "activity_lines": [ 26.573253, 26.377135, 770.099522, 1372.893227 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }