{ "ticker": { "uuid": "636b1beb-27d1-4bc5-9fd7-6c749f31311a", "symbol": "SPYL", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.898, "architecture_energy": 58.617, "architecture_maturity": 59.208, "architecture_confidence": 72.928, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.22, "rotation_up": 52.74, "upward_expansion": 79.72, "deceleration": 67.12, "rotation_down": 27.22, "downward_expansion": 8.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.687067, 18.589491, 18.421572, 18.058 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.181999, "trend_reference": 17.642267, "distance_from_trend": 0.087275, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.704931, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.30446, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.299091, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.129549, "excess_performance": 0.078314, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087275, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03534, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.30446, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031445, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032991, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024566, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.129549, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.576969, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5108879, "relative_activity": 1.116505, "balance": 1.576969, "dry_up": 1.083348, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020525, "annualized_volatility": 0.12933, "from_high_reference": -0.004877, "from_low_reference": 0.233728 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.642267, "fair_value_reference": 14.704931, "structural_low": 15.71, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.009764, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.011953, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.046816, "worst_return": -0.027111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.04077, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.017544, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.053708, "worst_return": 0.027039, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.09476, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.007798, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.109324, "worst_return": 0.080196, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.888933, "energy": 50.57316, "activity_lines": [ 18.487067, 18.483855, 18.244791, 17.898525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.384001, "volume": 5717533, "typical_volume": 4530353.7, "trend": 17.5728, "fair_value": 14.67384, "relative_strength": -0.649699, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.18323, "energy": 41.16687, "activity_lines": [ 18.459201, 18.463055, 18.299905, 17.954181 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.181999, "volume": 5108879, "typical_volume": 4575778.45, "trend": 17.642267, "fair_value": 14.704931, "relative_strength": 3.299091, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.898101, "energy": 58.617143, "activity_lines": [ 18.687067, 18.589491, 18.421572, 18.058 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }