{ "ticker": { "uuid": "636eba63-8b40-4e6a-bcd0-bc56b33c78c9", "symbol": "SJLD", "name": "SANJAC ALPHA LOW DURATION ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.33, "architecture_energy": 84.174, "architecture_maturity": 32.809, "architecture_confidence": 75.492, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.37, "rotation_up": 75.58, "upward_expansion": 97.43, "deceleration": 40.89, "rotation_down": 16.82, "downward_expansion": 19.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.214413, 25.180372, 25.130979, 25.069431 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 25.235, "trend_reference": 24.982356, "distance_from_trend": 0.010113, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.238491, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041113, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.146481, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.018899, "excess_performance": -0.168554, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010113, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006676, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041113, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000151, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111465, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038922, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018899, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.43482, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85, "relative_activity": 0.176899, "balance": 5.43482, "dry_up": 0.241415, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002507, "annualized_volatility": 0.016838, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.042875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.982356, "fair_value_reference": 24.238491, "structural_low": 24.686195, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003485, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.055603, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.011554, "worst_return": -0.000982, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.015753, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.256841, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.015753, "worst_return": 0.015753, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 25.2156, "volume": 41, "typical_volume": 621.9, "trend": 24.927536, "fair_value": 24.208342, "relative_strength": -8.608379, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.401066, "energy": 87.954108, "activity_lines": [ 25.163207, 25.129567, 25.077822, 25.017544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.18, "volume": 298, "typical_volume": 582.3, "trend": 24.944752, "fair_value": 24.218257, "relative_strength": -6.985522, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.403216, "energy": 79.737374, "activity_lines": [ 25.174827, 25.143067, 25.093783, 25.033832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.225, "volume": 40, "typical_volume": 488.05, "trend": 24.963468, "fair_value": 24.228426, "relative_strength": -6.996593, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.578396, "energy": 86.385431, "activity_lines": [ 25.196787, 25.162486, 25.112777, 25.051913 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.235, "volume": 85, "typical_volume": 480.5, "trend": 24.982356, "fair_value": 24.238491, "relative_strength": -11.146481, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.329623, "energy": 84.174339, "activity_lines": [ 25.214413, 25.180372, 25.130979, 25.069431 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }