{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63703d61-405c-4bf4-ac18-969bf6b761f3", "symbol": "BX4", "name": "Amundi CAC 40 Daily (-2x) Inv UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.264, "architecture_energy": 71.982, "architecture_maturity": 32.368, "architecture_confidence": 95.744, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.87, "rotation_up": 21.67, "upward_expansion": 14.65, "deceleration": 40.88, "rotation_down": 59.61, "downward_expansion": 85.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.5773, 0.584624, 0.604572, 0.622051 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.5509, "trend_reference": 0.638893, "distance_from_trend": -0.137728, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.763312, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.278277, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.131855, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.15037, "excess_performance": -0.203682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137728, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039253, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.278277, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106308, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221319, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142786, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15037, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.551817, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84838251, "relative_activity": 1.332852, "balance": 0.551817, "dry_up": 1.359025, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04922, "annualized_volatility": 0.321299, "from_high_reference": -0.296963, "from_low_reference": 0.008236 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.638893, "fair_value_reference": 0.763312, "structural_low": 0.5464, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.007944, "positive_rate": 0.463415, "directional_follow_through": 0.536585, "median_excess_return": -0.012009, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.24651, "worst_return": -0.160129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.050185, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.064644, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.097542, "worst_return": -0.151651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.058911, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.081006, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.203324, "worst_return": -0.267587, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": -60.730318, "energy": 58.980079, "activity_lines": [ 0.594713, 0.600885, 0.623551, 0.63539 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.5971, "volume": 45335927, "typical_volume": 63819091.3, "trend": 0.644347, "fair_value": 0.767215, "relative_strength": -13.52281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.227281, "energy": 44.742038, "activity_lines": [ 0.59612, 0.598162, 0.6188, 0.632206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5777, "volume": 118366952, "typical_volume": 64705773.9, "trend": 0.64166, "fair_value": 0.765337, "relative_strength": -17.005428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.771036, "energy": 46.597145, "activity_lines": [ 0.590587, 0.593265, 0.612655, 0.627906 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5509, "volume": 84838251, "typical_volume": 63651644.25, "trend": 0.638893, "fair_value": 0.763312, "relative_strength": -22.131855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.264343, "energy": 71.981725, "activity_lines": [ 0.5773, 0.584624, 0.604572, 0.622051 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }