{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6375e242-d67c-4f78-8e93-fe1097fa16d1", "symbol": "BITW", "name": "BITWISE 10 CRYPTO INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.444, "architecture_energy": 29.27, "architecture_maturity": 66.397, "architecture_confidence": 77.75, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.2, "rotation_up": 26.44, "upward_expansion": 15.97, "deceleration": 46.29, "rotation_down": 28.07, "downward_expansion": 58.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.18862, 40.665196, 42.709633, 43.890257 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 41.7, "trend_reference": 46.120357, "distance_from_trend": -0.095844, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.270777, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.078876, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.521876, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.094856, "excess_performance": -0.220481, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095844, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13024, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.078876, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.29068, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.345219, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078814, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.094856, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.823374, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 128134, "relative_activity": 0.494753, "balance": 0.823374, "dry_up": 0.625634, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07716, "annualized_volatility": 0.384812, "from_high_reference": -0.519031, "from_low_reference": 0.120968 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.120357, "fair_value_reference": 45.270777, "structural_low": 37.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.02062, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.000172, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.793296, "worst_return": -0.378828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.120185, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.138726, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.057145, "worst_return": -0.563247, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.129519, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.215687, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.675848, "worst_return": -0.645116, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089725, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.159655, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.259738, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1664, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.057105, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": 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"fair_value": 44.543934, "relative_strength": -37.699076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.990963, "energy": 63.41601, "activity_lines": [ 39.9111, 41.341702, 44.140073, 45.582039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.17, "volume": 180408, "typical_volume": 299255.1, "trend": 48.034623, "fair_value": 44.721883, "relative_strength": -35.584012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.242084, "energy": 52.156895, "activity_lines": [ 40.34448, 40.905522, 43.760785, 45.099762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.3, "volume": 128188, "typical_volume": 289428.35, "trend": 47.452023, "fair_value": 44.905969, "relative_strength": -34.07674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.520522, "energy": 39.411065, "activity_lines": [ 40.764527, 40.685535, 43.402782, 44.66527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.51, "volume": 211391, "typical_volume": 289319.1, "trend": 46.77069, "fair_value": 45.084751, "relative_strength": -35.136605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.818811, "energy": 33.694999, "activity_lines": [ 40.85724, 40.495184, 42.984922, 44.217398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.7, "volume": 128134, "typical_volume": 258985.75, "trend": 46.120357, "fair_value": 45.270777, "relative_strength": -34.521876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.444367, "energy": 29.269869, "activity_lines": [ 41.18862, 40.665196, 42.709633, 43.890257 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }