{ "ticker": { "uuid": "637a5118-84b5-46b7-98c5-8729c4829f12", "symbol": "ALKLK", "name": "Kerlink SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.233, "architecture_energy": 22.064, "architecture_maturity": 56.218, "architecture_confidence": 86.327, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.28, "rotation_up": 21.61, "upward_expansion": 53.99, "deceleration": 90.74, "rotation_down": 36.77, "downward_expansion": 19.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.073333, 1.124273, 1.093243, 1.048951 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.06, "trend_reference": 1.0083, "distance_from_trend": 0.051274, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.782312, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.354959, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.706762, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.152174, "excess_performance": 0.098863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051274, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080013, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.354959, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.22933, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007068, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089526, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.152174, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.279434, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89857, "relative_activity": 0.440756, "balance": 4.279434, "dry_up": 0.450141, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145646, "annualized_volatility": 0.591951, "from_high_reference": -0.258741, "from_low_reference": 0.432432 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.0083, "fair_value_reference": 0.782312, "structural_low": 0.74, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.070213, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.067858, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.106291, "worst_return": -0.168359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.02766, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.08405, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.106291, "worst_return": -0.259197, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.111894, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.203191, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.019523, "worst_return": -0.243311, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099099, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112644, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07489, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085106, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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205070, "typical_volume": 196786.45, "trend": 0.986233, "fair_value": 0.776651, "relative_strength": 14.309672, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.76269, "energy": 49.0465, "activity_lines": [ 1.225, 1.180655, 1.076314, 1.031594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.01, "volume": 115242, "typical_volume": 201286.55, "trend": 0.9909, "fair_value": 0.777292, "relative_strength": -0.939818, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.755571, "energy": 31.867059, "activity_lines": [ 1.155, 1.161782, 1.076705, 1.033127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.105, "volume": 95429, "typical_volume": 204411.1, "trend": 0.9986, "fair_value": 0.779106, "relative_strength": 7.63323, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.726931, "energy": 22.38686, "activity_lines": [ 1.129333, 1.157636, 1.085686, 1.040488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.075, "volume": 66553, "typical_volume": 201756.35, "trend": 1.005233, "fair_value": 0.780677, "relative_strength": 2.953913, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.482766, "energy": 22.073842, "activity_lines": [ 1.097, 1.143909, 1.090643, 1.045417 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.06, "volume": 89857, "typical_volume": 203870.1, "trend": 1.0083, "fair_value": 0.782312, "relative_strength": -0.706762, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.232619, "energy": 22.064359, "activity_lines": [ 1.073333, 1.124273, 1.093243, 1.048951 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }