{ "ticker": { "uuid": "637e9052-8908-426e-ac30-21c0570cd12f", "symbol": "VIC", "name": "Victorian Plumbing Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 50.128, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.891, "architecture_energy": 31.966, "architecture_maturity": 34.515, "architecture_confidence": 72.066, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.3, "rotation_up": 11.86, "upward_expansion": 13.49, "deceleration": 47.38, "rotation_down": 57.74, "downward_expansion": 72.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.761909, 0.776055, 0.784443, 0.781642 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.76, "trend_reference": 0.784668, "distance_from_trend": -0.031438, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.826332, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.080272, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.941421, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.11215, "excess_performance": -0.163385, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031438, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0313, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.080272, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067763, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059414, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099567, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11215, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.218134, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 903334, "relative_activity": 0.681729, "balance": 3.218134, "dry_up": 1.267564, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081576, "annualized_volatility": 0.291742, "from_high_reference": -0.155556, "from_low_reference": 0.361761 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.784668, "fair_value_reference": 0.826332, "structural_low": 0.63861, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.010363, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012765, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.129376, "worst_return": -0.270142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004761, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.021508, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.290935, "worst_return": -0.341104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.182856, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.085725, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.217785, "worst_return": -0.337967, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 1332617.25, "trend": 0.785144, "fair_value": 0.826313, "relative_strength": -4.652485, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.201328, "energy": 19.116015, "activity_lines": [ 0.766823, 0.782186, 0.785662, 0.783265 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.76, "volume": 903334, "typical_volume": 1325063.35, "trend": 0.784668, "fair_value": 0.826332, "relative_strength": -5.941421, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.890908, "energy": 31.966098, "activity_lines": [ 0.761909, 0.776055, 0.784443, 0.781642 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }