{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63807adf-840a-4898-af15-9c36cb1553d6", "symbol": "9404", "name": "Alinma Saudi Government Sukuk Etf Fund - Short Maturity - Alinma Sukuk Fund", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.108, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.385, "architecture_energy": 27.687, "architecture_maturity": 23.501, "architecture_confidence": 87.729, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.88, "rotation_up": 18.28, "upward_expansion": 3.49, "deceleration": 46.74, "rotation_down": 44.93, "downward_expansion": 74.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.147333, 10.189619, 10.286159, 10.324026 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.15, "trend_reference": 10.344102, "distance_from_trend": -0.018764, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.94386, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02073, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.358829, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.009756, "excess_performance": 0.03852, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018764, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -6.9e-05, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02073, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06112, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003588, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012488, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009756, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.139759, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16852, "relative_activity": 0.066572, "balance": 0.139759, "dry_up": 0.053984, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04718, "annualized_volatility": 0.192599, "from_high_reference": -0.116623, "from_low_reference": 0.071738 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.344102, "fair_value_reference": 9.94386, "structural_low": 9.470597, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000966, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.004352, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.003806, "worst_return": -0.008464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.009607, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.038378, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.009607, "worst_return": 0.009607, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.015437, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.031356, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015437, "worst_return": 0.015437, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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10.216468, "volume": 27965, "typical_volume": 245168.85, "trend": 10.368777, "fair_value": 9.860152, "relative_strength": -0.374459, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.05968, "energy": 5.292873, "activity_lines": [ 10.394371, 10.413717, 10.429391, 10.405555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.206654, "volume": 263843, "typical_volume": 252084.45, "trend": 10.365753, "fair_value": 9.874576, "relative_strength": 0.453787, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.638958, "energy": 10.248199, "activity_lines": [ 10.324604, 10.370567, 10.408693, 10.395096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.030001, "volume": 29965, "typical_volume": 252468.6, "trend": 10.356512, "fair_value": 9.887868, "relative_strength": -1.164846, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.531215, "energy": 26.816445, "activity_lines": [ 10.200176, 10.299723, 10.371567, 10.373434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.2, "volume": 19749, "typical_volume": 253229.3, "trend": 10.353922, "fair_value": 9.902199, "relative_strength": 1.233842, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.560095, "energy": 28.54537, "activity_lines": [ 10.170414, 10.274879, 10.352346, 10.363337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.13, "volume": 8065, "typical_volume": 253408.65, "trend": 10.349328, "fair_value": 9.916081, "relative_strength": -0.165696, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.177743, "energy": 42.506596, "activity_lines": [ 10.144652, 10.243671, 10.327411, 10.34889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.16, "volume": 9996, "typical_volume": 253102.55, "trend": 10.346061, "fair_value": 9.930054, "relative_strength": 2.112075, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.986699, "energy": 38.105426, "activity_lines": [ 10.145777, 10.213373, 10.30657, 10.336676 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.15, "volume": 16852, "typical_volume": 253140.9, "trend": 10.344102, "fair_value": 9.94386, "relative_strength": -0.358829, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.385272, "energy": 27.686559, "activity_lines": [ 10.147333, 10.189619, 10.286159, 10.324026 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }