{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6383b618-d955-4094-9169-51bbccefda05", "symbol": "KLIMAT", "name": "Klimator AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 73.542, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.355, "architecture_energy": 11.091, "architecture_maturity": 15.646, "architecture_confidence": 68.01, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.05, "rotation_up": 33.79, "upward_expansion": 61.78, "deceleration": 82.7, "rotation_down": 25.7, "downward_expansion": 16.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.758667, 3.786909, 3.73519, 3.718753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.65, "trend_reference": 3.708, "distance_from_trend": -0.015642, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.494199, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.463396, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.689113, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.042857, "excess_performance": -0.018637, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015642, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008821, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.463396, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144807, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126891, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117169, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042857, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.745881, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 128229, "relative_activity": 2.178132, "balance": 0.745881, "dry_up": 0.958255, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079663, "annualized_volatility": 0.261564, "from_high_reference": -0.187082, "from_low_reference": 0.367041 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.708, "fair_value_reference": 2.494199, "structural_low": 3.27, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.047663, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.027203, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.176101, "worst_return": -0.239035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.073751, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.01128, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.387755, "worst_return": -0.390944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.290756, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.19907, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.538462, "worst_return": -0.598023, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.58547, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.330375, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.647059, "worst_return": -0.712526, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104167, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017699, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145299, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.372694, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073298, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133663, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002695, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073171, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07781, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013158, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066327, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.4, "volume": 16227, "typical_volume": 105286.25, "trend": 1.594667, "fair_value": 7.89032, "relative_strength": -37.51079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.961894, "energy": 16.744285, "activity_lines": [ 3.733333, 3.668909, 3.669952, 3.686086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.85, "volume": 6847, "typical_volume": 66064.0, "trend": 3.728, "fair_value": 2.41891, "relative_strength": -4.78507, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.572106, "energy": 25.400059, "activity_lines": [ 3.786667, 3.704545, 3.686619, 3.693419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.92, "volume": 28785, "typical_volume": 60338.95, "trend": 3.724, "fair_value": 2.435, "relative_strength": -1.353947, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.956094, "energy": 45.084832, "activity_lines": [ 3.838, 3.749636, 3.709286, 3.705806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.8, "volume": 18570, "typical_volume": 52003.65, "trend": 3.723, "fair_value": 2.450192, "relative_strength": -3.782405, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.781701, "energy": 39.540676, "activity_lines": [ 3.838, 3.77, 3.718952, 3.71071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.99, "volume": 38465, "typical_volume": 52176.2, "trend": 3.731333, "fair_value": 2.466314, "relative_strength": -1.013276, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.268974, "energy": 44.454357, "activity_lines": [ 3.894, 3.823273, 3.746714, 3.727935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.66, "volume": 40390, "typical_volume": 53644.05, "trend": 3.721, "fair_value": 2.480224, "relative_strength": -10.660639, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.613531, "energy": 24.160511, "activity_lines": [ 3.823333, 3.808182, 3.741333, 3.723333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.65, "volume": 128229, "typical_volume": 58871.1, "trend": 3.708, "fair_value": 2.494199, "relative_strength": -12.689113, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.354766, "energy": 11.091317, "activity_lines": [ 3.758667, 3.786909, 3.73519, 3.718753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }