{ "ticker": { "uuid": "638810a1-e69e-482b-b9a9-e92d780bb55b", "symbol": "SPXD", "name": "BetaPro S&P 500 -2x Daily Bear ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.013, "architecture_energy": 58.82, "architecture_maturity": 59.959, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.33, "rotation_up": 27.19, "upward_expansion": 8.88, "deceleration": 52.82, "rotation_down": 55.42, "downward_expansion": 82.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.162667, 9.280545, 9.472667, 9.899978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.69, "trend_reference": 10.369667, "distance_from_trend": -0.161979, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.115449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.460766, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.752548, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.205667, "excess_performance": -0.326089, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161979, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.460766, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008949, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.297525, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003766, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.396865, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1613800, "relative_activity": 1.226749, "balance": 0.396865, "dry_up": 0.926618, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052138, "annualized_volatility": 0.291496, "from_high_reference": -0.339163, "from_low_reference": 0.009292 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.369667, "fair_value_reference": 16.115449, "structural_low": 8.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.026762, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.0335, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.169863, "worst_return": -0.112125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.064573, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.078733, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.097339, "worst_return": -0.185649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.153871, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.20596, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.302937, "worst_return": -0.213086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.47124, "energy": 47.187691, "activity_lines": [ 9.489333, 9.471091, 9.98719, 10.328559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.13, "volume": 1891100, "typical_volume": 1464835.0, "trend": 10.607, "fair_value": 16.505962, "relative_strength": -27.432635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.497686, "energy": 59.224522, "activity_lines": [ 9.364, 9.400727, 9.85681, 10.228731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.41, "volume": 1586400, "typical_volume": 1500830.0, "trend": 10.546667, "fair_value": 16.411282, "relative_strength": -24.257152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.908327, "energy": 54.799014, "activity_lines": [ 9.362667, 9.397455, 9.762095, 10.151505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.56, "volume": 909900, "typical_volume": 1412840.0, "trend": 10.501667, "fair_value": 16.320321, "relative_strength": -22.469248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.777612, "energy": 50.626777, "activity_lines": [ 9.416, 9.424545, 9.689714, 10.087849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.34, "volume": 765800, "typical_volume": 1339915.0, "trend": 10.440333, "fair_value": 16.220513, "relative_strength": -22.97643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.6542, "energy": 47.769186, "activity_lines": [ 9.380667, 9.411273, 9.605952, 10.012903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.69, "volume": 1613800, "typical_volume": 1315510.0, "trend": 10.369667, "fair_value": 16.115449, "relative_strength": -29.752548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.012959, "energy": 58.819654, "activity_lines": [ 9.162667, 9.280545, 9.472667, 9.899978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }