{ "ticker": { "uuid": "639070be-ee74-4c61-bc94-b1b892baa5ce", "symbol": "EPRE", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi FTSE EPRA Europe Real Estate UCITS ETF-C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.778, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 40.697, "architecture_energy": 61.616, "architecture_maturity": 10.361, "architecture_confidence": 54.593, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.57, "rotation_up": 72.83, "upward_expansion": 65.4, "deceleration": 18.87, "rotation_down": 18.03, "downward_expansion": 21.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 345.743329, 342.442726, 337.424999, 336.234837 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 346.549988, "trend_reference": 336.616664, "distance_from_trend": 0.029509, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 318.720895, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.087315, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.638031, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006974, "excess_performance": -0.163918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029509, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011889, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.087315, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030417, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10638, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01781, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006974, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.02381, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81, "relative_activity": 0.303484, "balance": 3.02381, "dry_up": 0.355939, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021842, "annualized_volatility": 0.193407, "from_high_reference": -0.054692, "from_low_reference": 0.12846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 336.616664, "fair_value_reference": 318.720895, "structural_low": 307.100006, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.070818, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.077943, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.014528, "worst_return": -0.103495, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.070771, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.102727, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.001967, "worst_return": -0.139575, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.072535, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.143932, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.011198, "worst_return": -0.133872, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.616888, "energy": 54.614698, "activity_lines": [ 341.170001, 336.375456, 333.216904, 334.172256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 344.5, "volume": 56, "typical_volume": 314.45, "trend": 335.69333, "fair_value": 317.800062, "relative_strength": -8.636418, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.300173, "energy": 58.871651, "activity_lines": [ 342.983333, 338.459093, 334.469047, 334.784407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 348.0, "volume": 74, "typical_volume": 298.85, "trend": 336.374997, "fair_value": 318.278588, "relative_strength": -7.992794, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.063289, "energy": 64.385643, "activity_lines": [ 344.876666, 340.739092, 336.057381, 335.578386 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 346.549988, "volume": 81, "typical_volume": 266.9, "trend": 336.616664, "fair_value": 318.720895, "relative_strength": -10.638031, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.69702, "energy": 61.616406, "activity_lines": [ 345.743329, 342.442726, 337.424999, 336.234837 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }