{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6390e840-1a77-4c1e-9871-e330728de9ca", "symbol": "SPQH", "name": "Global X S&P 500 Quarterly Tail Hedge UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.461, "architecture_energy": 74.537, "architecture_maturity": 29.931, "architecture_confidence": 72.062, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.5, "rotation_up": 71.32, "upward_expansion": 90.5, "deceleration": 50.22, "rotation_down": 24.13, "downward_expansion": 12.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.311866, 18.245818, 18.0356, 17.872873 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 18.389999, "trend_reference": 17.7016, "distance_from_trend": 0.038889, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.748667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097998, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.040071, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.054352, "excess_performance": -0.11654, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038889, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012847, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.097998, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027329, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100401, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003273, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054352, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 84.566667, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 316, "relative_activity": 0.179362, "balance": 84.566667, "dry_up": 0.046969, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006458, "annualized_volatility": 0.043277, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.117118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.7016, "fair_value_reference": 16.748667, "structural_low": 17.280001, "invalidation": "A 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18.222266, 18.107236, 17.872638, 17.745209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.274, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1782.0, "trend": 17.653067, "fair_value": 16.705795, "relative_strength": -7.838564, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.214512, "energy": 76.605014, "activity_lines": [ 18.254266, 18.155672, 17.927733, 17.786998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.274, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1782.0, "trend": 17.679867, "fair_value": 16.727462, "relative_strength": -8.208551, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.163939, "energy": 68.655619, "activity_lines": [ 18.264267, 18.194982, 17.978371, 17.827058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.389999, "volume": 316, "typical_volume": 1761.8, "trend": 17.7016, "fair_value": 16.748667, "relative_strength": -10.040071, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.460732, "energy": 74.53651, "activity_lines": [ 18.311866, 18.245818, 18.0356, 17.872873 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }