{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63929eab-9b3e-4f75-be8d-eca02ca3af5b", "symbol": "300082", "name": "Liaoning Oxiranchem,Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.283, "architecture_energy": 77.668, "architecture_maturity": 28.268, "architecture_confidence": 95.485, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.82, "rotation_up": 13.04, "upward_expansion": 19.02, "deceleration": 37.41, "rotation_down": 66.76, "downward_expansion": 90.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.498667, 7.891273, 8.894333, 9.380688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.86, "trend_reference": 9.866333, "distance_from_trend": -0.203351, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.302692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.076315, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.43349, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.198777, "excess_performance": -0.206177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.203351, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060319, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.076315, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.602251, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194335, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.198777, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.35649, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34154571, "relative_activity": 0.379704, "balance": 0.35649, "dry_up": 0.49058, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132707, "annualized_volatility": 0.53706, "from_high_reference": -0.453408, "from_low_reference": 0.231975 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.866333, "fair_value_reference": 7.302692, "structural_low": 6.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.007123, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": 0.013029, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.204831, "worst_return": -0.163536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.043797, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.0255, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.269953, "worst_return": -0.250364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.075495, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.002545, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.546948, "worst_return": -0.363901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.612926, "energy": 66.924872, "activity_lines": [ 8.592667, 9.067818, 9.898714, 10.077462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.03, "volume": 42195292, "typical_volume": 97209220.9, "trend": 10.113667, "fair_value": 7.30859, "relative_strength": -25.647782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.842079, "energy": 78.043977, "activity_lines": [ 8.014667, 8.593636, 9.592381, 9.872774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.02, "volume": 47407746, "typical_volume": 96671167.45, "trend": 10.029333, "fair_value": 7.303974, "relative_strength": -25.783818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.304581, "energy": 81.78674, "activity_lines": [ 7.56, 8.210182, 9.300905, 9.673183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.57, "volume": 52754049, "typical_volume": 92725234.35, "trend": 9.934333, "fair_value": 7.303205, "relative_strength": -18.524529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.165505, "energy": 80.676037, "activity_lines": [ 7.442, 7.995636, 9.076381, 9.514516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.86, "volume": 34154571, "typical_volume": 89950464.0, "trend": 9.866333, "fair_value": 7.302692, "relative_strength": -19.43349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.283, "energy": 77.667916, "activity_lines": [ 7.498667, 7.891273, 8.894333, 9.380688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }