{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6397fe4a-c09f-4537-a4b1-3eec406fbbcd", "symbol": "GEOS", "name": "Geospace Technologies Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.764, "architecture_energy": 50.756, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.534, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.69, "rotation_up": 27.3, "upward_expansion": 6.55, "deceleration": 60.02, "rotation_down": 49.62, "downward_expansion": 77.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.72, 6.842727, 7.421095, 8.209785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.85, "trend_reference": 9.784, "distance_from_trend": -0.402085, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.71641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.5007, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -63.60549, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.421365, "excess_performance": -0.608819, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.402085, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270422, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.5007, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213766, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.636055, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11624, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.421365, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544936, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 776918, "relative_activity": 0.921892, "balance": 0.544936, "dry_up": 0.621658, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.212164, "annualized_volatility": 0.77241, "from_high_reference": -0.8043, "from_low_reference": 0.064604 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.784, "fair_value_reference": 11.71641, "structural_low": 5.495, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.002066, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": 0.024428, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.838663, "worst_return": -0.347977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.041246, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.066819, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 2.30339, "worst_return": -0.293413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.109252, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.086057, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.334132, "worst_return": -0.321375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.178826, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.208826, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019057, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063655, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.176048, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100957, 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.389388, "energy": 66.029394, "activity_lines": [ 7.004667, 7.268364, 8.183048, 9.257097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.8, "volume": 479495, "typical_volume": 930249.4, "trend": 11.004667, "fair_value": 11.743205, "relative_strength": -57.759657, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.848741, "energy": 53.924721, "activity_lines": [ 6.934667, 7.139818, 7.975571, 8.96772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.08, "volume": 377659, "typical_volume": 902918.95, "trend": 10.664667, "fair_value": 11.737179, "relative_strength": -54.836131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.51893, "energy": 46.022514, "activity_lines": [ 6.988667, 7.091273, 7.806048, 8.714516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.31, "volume": 461521, "typical_volume": 865471.7, "trend": 10.318667, "fair_value": 11.734359, "relative_strength": -52.907749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.626675, "energy": 36.396548, "activity_lines": [ 7.128667, 7.092545, 7.672952, 8.498086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.85, "volume": 776918, "typical_volume": 842743.25, "trend": 9.784, "fair_value": 11.71641, "relative_strength": -63.60549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.763709, "energy": 50.755728, "activity_lines": [ 6.72, 6.842727, 7.421095, 8.209785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }