{ "ticker": { "uuid": "639923a6-cf5d-473c-8e91-6dd752c56577", "symbol": "IRI", "name": "Integrated Research Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.627, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.54, "architecture_energy": 19.596, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.983, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.87, "rotation_up": 45.32, "upward_expansion": 24.59, "deceleration": 38.49, "rotation_down": 19.85, "downward_expansion": 56.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.293667, 0.287727, 0.290071, 0.29343 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.3, "trend_reference": 0.299833, "distance_from_trend": 0.000556, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.410477, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.269144, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.970213, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.063706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000556, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045117, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.269144, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002144, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129702, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020669, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.035265, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 517604, "relative_activity": 1.241732, "balance": 1.035265, "dry_up": 1.598356, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041667, "annualized_volatility": 0.225147, "from_high_reference": -0.371765, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.299833, "fair_value_reference": 0.410477, "structural_low": 0.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.01411, "positive_rate": 0.404762, "directional_follow_through": 0.547619, "median_excess_return": -0.027293, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 0.452053, "worst_return": -0.382353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.110811, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.099775, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.289855, "worst_return": -0.460122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.189189, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.189446, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.37097, "worst_return": -0.619047, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 52.383245, "activity_lines": [ 0.278, 0.281909, 0.289214, 0.294484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.295, "volume": 774875, "typical_volume": 465495.45, "trend": 0.302167, "fair_value": 0.411661, "relative_strength": -10.753647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.979461, "energy": 34.165359, "activity_lines": [ 0.283667, 0.283455, 0.28931, 0.293935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.295, "volume": 495289, "typical_volume": 408734.35, "trend": 0.300667, "fair_value": 0.411039, "relative_strength": -12.258715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.12866, "energy": 17.985269, "activity_lines": [ 0.288333, 0.285091, 0.289452, 0.293473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.3, "volume": 517604, "typical_volume": 416840.3, "trend": 0.299833, "fair_value": 0.410477, "relative_strength": -12.970213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.539607, "energy": 19.596152, "activity_lines": [ 0.293667, 0.287727, 0.290071, 0.29343 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }