{ "ticker": { "uuid": "639ca932-fda7-485d-b46b-d6f64fdf9bc8", "symbol": "PRAN", "name": "AMUNDI INDEX SOLUTIONS AMUNDI P", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.846, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.928, "architecture_energy": 18.985, "architecture_maturity": 64.185, "architecture_confidence": 89.659, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.59, "rotation_up": 15.89, "upward_expansion": 45.5, "deceleration": 87.93, "rotation_down": 43.7, "downward_expansion": 30.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.4485, 21.8425, 21.915638, 21.498199 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.7675, "trend_reference": 20.933983, "distance_from_trend": 0.039816, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.808052, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.22234, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.739667, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.108043, "excess_performance": 0.056807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039816, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064781, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.22234, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078894, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027397, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139247, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108043, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.087304, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99571, "relative_activity": 2.193863, "balance": 1.087304, "dry_up": 1.276303, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046876, "annualized_volatility": 0.226587, "from_high_reference": -0.085783, "from_low_reference": 0.339868 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.933983, "fair_value_reference": 17.808052, "structural_low": 18.379999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113555, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018363, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 15.112, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 14.843, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": 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20.267683, "fair_value": 17.520932, "relative_strength": 12.877766, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.970879, "energy": 63.143111, "activity_lines": [ 22.858333, 22.532273, 21.651671, 21.071419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 22.615, "volume": 3025, "typical_volume": 41895.45, "trend": 20.413717, "fair_value": 17.583055, "relative_strength": 10.138617, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.449814, "energy": 57.158324, "activity_lines": [ 22.810667, 22.607045, 21.804879, 21.222859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.235001, "volume": 61191, "typical_volume": 43376.7, "trend": 20.554317, "fair_value": 17.639102, "relative_strength": 9.787441, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.138777, "energy": 50.3818, "activity_lines": [ 22.646834, 22.584, 21.909538, 21.340361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.959999, "volume": 63842, "typical_volume": 44379.7, "trend": 20.650183, "fair_value": 17.678637, "relative_strength": 2.314969, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.109414, "energy": 18.774463, "activity_lines": [ 22.046, 22.308909, 21.8849, 21.366534 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.375, "volume": 34048, "typical_volume": 44051.9, "trend": 20.75965, "fair_value": 17.722124, "relative_strength": 2.814819, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.745507, "energy": 23.334109, "activity_lines": [ 21.692, 22.1315, 21.899059, 21.413297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.1525, "volume": 34245, "typical_volume": 43046.8, "trend": 20.844367, "fair_value": 17.762012, "relative_strength": 0.34602, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.931237, "energy": 20.689935, "activity_lines": [ 21.415167, 21.923455, 21.882467, 21.438642 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.7675, "volume": 99571, "typical_volume": 45386.15, "trend": 20.933983, "fair_value": 17.808052, "relative_strength": 2.739667, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.927749, "energy": 18.984683, "activity_lines": [ 21.4485, 21.8425, 21.915638, 21.498199 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }