{ "ticker": { "uuid": "639e57c8-2b5a-4542-9b7c-e4e9c845765e", "symbol": "TWR", "name": "Tower Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.886, "architecture_energy": 24.084, "architecture_maturity": 19.186, "architecture_confidence": 77.748, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.93, "rotation_up": 19.61, "upward_expansion": 2.04, "deceleration": 51.19, "rotation_down": 43.02, "downward_expansion": 73.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.869667, 1.872459, 1.892525, 1.893571 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.875, "trend_reference": 1.897051, "distance_from_trend": -0.011624, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.865752, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.165746, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.266832, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033505, "excess_performance": -0.061779, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011624, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01397, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.165746, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.71879, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002668, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216183, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033505, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.662443, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1073658, "relative_activity": 0.847072, "balance": 1.662443, "dry_up": 1.017934, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03412, "annualized_volatility": 0.25126, "from_high_reference": -0.113206, "from_low_reference": 0.224848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.897051, "fair_value_reference": 0.865752, "structural_low": 1.795, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.011275, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.015381, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.053432, "worst_return": -0.023499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.02459, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.047445, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.132803, "worst_return": -0.046874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032709, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.129744, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.289056, "worst_return": -0.001291, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03279, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008128, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065569, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.91258, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038758, 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1492721.25, "trend": 1.896076, "fair_value": 0.820202, "relative_strength": -0.494847, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.558209, "energy": 21.262124, "activity_lines": [ 1.871333, 1.885406, 1.903483, 1.90043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.87, "volume": 1701541, "typical_volume": 1425231.35, "trend": 1.897546, "fair_value": 0.831593, "relative_strength": 0.978812, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.810349, "energy": 22.256982, "activity_lines": [ 1.867667, 1.877338, 1.900833, 1.898747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.88, "volume": 1338250, "typical_volume": 1371066.2, "trend": 1.898889, "fair_value": 0.84304, "relative_strength": 0.707661, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.496702, "energy": 28.73077, "activity_lines": [ 1.869, 1.874646, 1.899063, 1.897615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.86, "volume": 1047451, "typical_volume": 1345018.75, "trend": 1.898796, "fair_value": 0.854348, "relative_strength": -0.001437, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.25303, "energy": 31.486381, "activity_lines": [ 1.866, 1.872578, 1.895175, 1.895106 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.875, "volume": 1073658, "typical_volume": 1267493.4, "trend": 1.897051, "fair_value": 0.865752, "relative_strength": -0.266832, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.885908, "energy": 24.084432, "activity_lines": [ 1.869667, 1.872459, 1.892525, 1.893571 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }