{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63a2bf3c-3a65-4cd3-87de-d1ba953ef50d", "symbol": "AOS", "name": "Smith AO Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 71.683, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -2.564, "architecture_energy": 6.139, "architecture_maturity": 21.146, "architecture_confidence": 63.836, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.55, "rotation_up": 27.11, "upward_expansion": 25.79, "deceleration": 48.99, "rotation_down": 19.76, "downward_expansion": 47.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.250309, 60.75383, 60.114629, 61.725392 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 63.98, "trend_reference": 64.764769, "distance_from_trend": -0.012117, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 70.494345, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092409, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.454706, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.185206, "excess_performance": -0.310831, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012117, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032357, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092409, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083706, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144547, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091616, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.185206, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.097926, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8491571, "relative_activity": 1.025446, "balance": 1.097926, "dry_up": 1.116487, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055885, "annualized_volatility": 0.258243, "from_high_reference": -0.213968, "from_low_reference": 0.181315 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.764769, "fair_value_reference": 70.494345, "structural_low": 54.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.009094, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005796, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.136393, "worst_return": -0.136663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.044634, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.014867, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.191624, "worst_return": -0.071141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.072521, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.146485, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.315594, "worst_return": -0.180445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-16.460921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.896342, "energy": 18.591344, "activity_lines": [ 60.158496, 59.738293, 59.867807, 62.115994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.13, "volume": 11686183, "typical_volume": 8293025.7, "trend": 64.957771, "fair_value": 70.516817, "relative_strength": -17.237749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.767489, "energy": 18.794201, "activity_lines": [ 60.02198, 59.921971, 59.792829, 61.788474 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.98, "volume": 8491571, "typical_volume": 8280852.8, "trend": 64.764769, "fair_value": 70.494345, "relative_strength": -14.454706, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.564095, "energy": 6.139281, "activity_lines": [ 61.250309, 60.75383, 60.114629, 61.725392 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }