{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63a85fb0-42ee-43af-9250-0943fab6112b", "symbol": "ROMI3", "name": "Romi S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.326, "architecture_energy": 75.014, "architecture_maturity": 55.712, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 25.09, "upward_expansion": 15.52, "deceleration": 43.71, "rotation_down": 61.1, "downward_expansion": 88.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.897333, 5.995615, 6.219018, 6.536078 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.85, "trend_reference": 7.016474, "distance_from_trend": -0.166248, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.635875, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.322593, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.88386, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.287454, "excess_performance": -0.230406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166248, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081779, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.322593, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050776, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238839, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049632, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.287454, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.461542, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 736500, "relative_activity": 0.822253, "balance": 0.461542, "dry_up": 0.806679, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039033, "annualized_volatility": 0.205152, "from_high_reference": -0.34417, "from_low_reference": 0.020942 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.016474, "fair_value_reference": 8.635875, "structural_low": 5.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.017231, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.009139, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.215278, "worst_return": -0.171487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -1.4e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029612, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.077653, "worst_return": -0.251901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007132, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.105823, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.092613, "worst_return": -0.322352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 5.84, "volume": 925500, "typical_volume": 993535.0, "trend": 7.162808, "fair_value": 8.702741, "relative_strength": -26.125423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.859163, "energy": 78.031804, "activity_lines": [ 6.018, 6.103979, 6.358153, 6.699601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.87, "volume": 463400, "typical_volume": 959135.0, "trend": 7.091808, "fair_value": 8.668867, "relative_strength": -26.65434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.441907, "energy": 77.508885, "activity_lines": [ 5.955333, 6.045376, 6.284705, 6.616194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.85, "volume": 736500, "typical_volume": 895710.0, "trend": 7.016474, "fair_value": 8.635875, "relative_strength": -23.88386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.325983, "energy": 75.014357, "activity_lines": [ 5.897333, 5.995615, 6.219018, 6.536078 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }