{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63b483b1-50aa-42c5-bb70-d9c93c293dc4", "symbol": "LOT", "name": "Lotus Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -91.631, "architecture_energy": 97.018, "architecture_maturity": 67.85, "architecture_confidence": 92.92, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.3, "rotation_up": 23.49, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 66.46, "downward_expansion": 93.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.360667, 0.474727, 0.619381, 0.858124 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.23, "trend_reference": 1.267083, "distance_from_trend": -0.818481, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.592692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.911289, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -86.702688, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.889423, "excess_performance": -0.953129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.818481, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284975, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.911289, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197099, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.867027, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.253258, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.889423, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56327037, "relative_activity": 2.620967, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 2.154665, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.371237, "annualized_volatility": 1.301288, "from_high_reference": -0.930303, "from_low_reference": 0.045455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.267083, "fair_value_reference": 2.592692, "structural_low": 0.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.028665, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.346154, "median_excess_return": 0.033001, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.305556, "worst_return": -0.651515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.081475, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.361111, "worst_return": -0.541667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010823, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060918, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.540541, "worst_return": -0.097561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179487, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.212121, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.162162, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.26087, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09375, "active": false }, { 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15900959.95, "trend": 1.461, "fair_value": 2.633301, "relative_strength": -62.02727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.236678, "energy": 66.061709, "activity_lines": [ 0.66, 0.641364, 0.799786, 1.070871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.44, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 15103214.15, "trend": 1.40475, "fair_value": 2.620641, "relative_strength": -74.088388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.718224, "energy": 71.497519, "activity_lines": [ 0.586667, 0.605182, 0.745929, 1.005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.24, "volume": 128896107, "typical_volume": 20185213.1, "trend": 1.341833, "fair_value": 2.607067, "relative_strength": -85.947678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.464367, "energy": 97.358026, "activity_lines": [ 0.461333, 0.536909, 0.679929, 0.929855 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.23, "volume": 56327037, "typical_volume": 21490941.1, "trend": 1.267083, "fair_value": 2.592692, "relative_strength": -86.702688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.631345, "energy": 97.018435, "activity_lines": [ 0.360667, 0.474727, 0.619381, 0.858124 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }