{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63b57a62-1345-4aa4-a649-cb463e457245", "symbol": "300882", "name": "Zhejiang Wellsun Intelligent Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.115, "architecture_energy": 60.849, "architecture_maturity": 47.944, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.38, "rotation_up": 24.82, "upward_expansion": 11.09, "deceleration": 49.58, "rotation_down": 54.55, "downward_expansion": 82.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.512667, 14.838494, 16.032727, 17.506093 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.12, "trend_reference": 19.324969, "distance_from_trend": -0.217593, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.592715, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.088757, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.318924, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.322884, "excess_performance": -0.330284, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.217593, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080948, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.088757, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193756, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243189, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037314, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.322884, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.495564, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14521765, "relative_activity": 0.84467, "balance": 0.495564, "dry_up": 0.872499, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097372, "annualized_volatility": 0.424895, "from_high_reference": -0.453165, "from_low_reference": 0.199048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.324969, "fair_value_reference": 16.592715, "structural_low": 12.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.024378, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01349, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.387463, "worst_return": -0.148387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.057671, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.005544, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.483302, "worst_return": -0.106374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.000898, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.030933, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.344182, "worst_return": -0.12333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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15.798477, 16.25437, 18.110515, 19.220492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.23, "volume": 18275922, "typical_volume": 24644631.25, "trend": 19.958302, "fair_value": 16.720234, "relative_strength": -29.324625, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.482868, "energy": 62.15626, "activity_lines": [ 15.651334, 15.971731, 17.683567, 18.906773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.6, "volume": 15504786, "typical_volume": 23922610.35, "trend": 19.766636, "fair_value": 16.681992, "relative_strength": -30.211042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.089279, "energy": 66.468571, "activity_lines": [ 15.002, 15.44306, 17.13519, 18.49656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.7, "volume": 16714011, "typical_volume": 20741335.15, "trend": 19.597969, "fair_value": 16.641872, "relative_strength": -29.543972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.588511, "energy": 65.764612, "activity_lines": [ 14.49, 15.024201, 16.643195, 18.105165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.64, "volume": 13260299, "typical_volume": 17919681.05, "trend": 19.447636, "fair_value": 16.606187, "relative_strength": -23.214226, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.970642, "energy": 65.72618, "activity_lines": [ 14.38, 14.856733, 16.29377, 17.785296 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.12, "volume": 14521765, "typical_volume": 17192236.2, "trend": 19.324969, "fair_value": 16.592715, "relative_strength": -24.318924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.114754, "energy": 60.848733, "activity_lines": [ 14.512667, 14.838494, 16.032727, 17.506093 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }