{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63b92904-e24f-4433-bf03-23582ad76ffc", "symbol": "XPHI", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Philippines UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 48.609, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.709, "architecture_energy": 64.052, "architecture_maturity": 11.32, "architecture_confidence": 56.237, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.22, "rotation_up": 73.22, "upward_expansion": 62.77, "deceleration": 22.15, "rotation_down": 17.17, "downward_expansion": 21.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.5857, 1.566745, 1.534288, 1.530724 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.604, "trend_reference": 1.540083, "distance_from_trend": 0.041502, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.543494, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.039201, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.623838, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.010182, "excess_performance": -0.061417, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041502, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011815, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.039201, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062063, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053694, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010182, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.495769, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 136254, "relative_activity": 1.406944, "balance": 0.495769, "dry_up": 0.463885, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0264, "annualized_volatility": 0.205729, "from_high_reference": -0.063904, "from_low_reference": 0.165698 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.540083, "fair_value_reference": 1.543494, "structural_low": 1.403, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014671, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.007932, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.065231, "worst_return": -0.107599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004888, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04485, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.043198, "worst_return": -0.075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.060496, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.121976, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.022961, "worst_return": -0.134083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03893, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010082, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115805, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01124, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037462, 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.63757, "energy": 34.904284, "activity_lines": [ 1.538933, 1.515218, 1.503798, 1.517847 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.598, "volume": 17101, "typical_volume": 134130.2, "trend": 1.536183, "fair_value": 1.542485, "relative_strength": -2.326002, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.204418, "energy": 57.873145, "activity_lines": [ 1.560967, 1.532736, 1.512314, 1.522044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.5725, "volume": 18477, "typical_volume": 130154.1, "trend": 1.538267, "fair_value": 1.542411, "relative_strength": -4.742256, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.133064, "energy": 57.372595, "activity_lines": [ 1.568133, 1.543991, 1.518852, 1.524387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.572, "volume": 7866, "typical_volume": 102431.0, "trend": 1.539517, "fair_value": 1.542654, "relative_strength": -5.613517, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.91041, "energy": 55.611244, "activity_lines": [ 1.5739, 1.553482, 1.525226, 1.526563 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.604, "volume": 136254, "typical_volume": 96843.95, "trend": 1.540083, "fair_value": 1.543494, "relative_strength": -3.623838, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.708907, "energy": 64.052495, "activity_lines": [ 1.5857, 1.566745, 1.534288, 1.530724 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }