{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63bfef03-0c11-421b-ae5b-4547a6a3de44", "symbol": "EGCO", "name": "Electricity Generating Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.095, "architecture_energy": 87.663, "architecture_maturity": 29.732, "architecture_confidence": 74.646, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 80.58, "upward_expansion": 97.51, "deceleration": 41.88, "rotation_down": 8.42, "downward_expansion": 21.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 132.733333, 128.836364, 123.411905, 120.529133 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 132.0, "trend_reference": 117.683552, "distance_from_trend": 0.121652, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 107.082632, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.232693, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.912077, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.146466, "excess_performance": -0.045859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.121652, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041305, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.232693, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137843, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019121, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074945, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146466, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.705422, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5922500, "relative_activity": 1.345832, "balance": 3.705422, "dry_up": 1.9165, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034674, "annualized_volatility": 0.185221, "from_high_reference": -0.049957, "from_low_reference": 0.252131 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 117.683552, "fair_value_reference": 107.082632, "structural_low": 105.420309, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.001969, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006525, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.116883, "worst_return": -0.124031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.042021, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.030105, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.160682, "worst_return": -0.130902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.026605, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.016273, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.108781, "worst_return": -0.22441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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106.565236, "relative_strength": -6.734199, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.758393, "energy": 84.52094, "activity_lines": [ 122.5, 120.154545, 117.090991, 116.048172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 131.5, "volume": 10424900, "typical_volume": 4265740.0, "trend": 115.344724, "fair_value": 106.663869, "relative_strength": -3.960988, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.143566, "energy": 92.17446, "activity_lines": [ 126.033333, 122.481818, 118.646699, 117.140264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 134.5, "volume": 10944500, "typical_volume": 4419250.0, "trend": 116.168305, "fair_value": 106.816918, "relative_strength": -1.959746, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.225205, "energy": 95.306617, "activity_lines": [ 129.533333, 125.081818, 120.433333, 118.376088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 134.5, "volume": 6443300, "typical_volume": 4370495.0, "trend": 116.959499, "fair_value": 106.972674, "relative_strength": -0.812634, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.245853, "energy": 92.45668, "activity_lines": [ 132.066667, 127.354545, 122.1, 119.558778 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 132.0, "volume": 5922500, "typical_volume": 4400625.0, "trend": 117.683552, "fair_value": 107.082632, "relative_strength": -1.912077, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.09512, "energy": 87.662914, "activity_lines": [ 132.733333, 128.836364, 123.411905, 120.529133 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }