{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63c7df75-058e-4acc-a91f-79c179dc35af", "symbol": "LIDR", "name": "Aeye Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.886, "architecture_energy": 69.336, "architecture_maturity": 29.068, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.31, "rotation_up": 15.47, "upward_expansion": 15.78, "deceleration": 38.21, "rotation_down": 67.56, "downward_expansion": 91.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.222, 1.285818, 1.49819, 1.588194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.32, "trend_reference": 1.678, "distance_from_trend": -0.213349, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.126604, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.379292, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.346051, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.159236, "excess_performance": -0.346689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.213349, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163509, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.379292, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.443461, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263586, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.159236, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.469922, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9541099, "relative_activity": 0.853567, "balance": 0.469922, "dry_up": 0.422872, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.198397, "annualized_volatility": 0.820129, "from_high_reference": -0.67, "from_low_reference": 0.306931 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.678, "fair_value_reference": 2.126604, "structural_low": 1.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.049111, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.044563, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 2.514442, "worst_return": -0.545098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.018779, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.138264, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.835616, "worst_return": -0.671257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.472727, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.484843, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 3.603448, "worst_return": -0.809077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.760563, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -1.034474, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.427273, "worst_return": -0.89403, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.490196, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.169464, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.219876, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.363169, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 2.924779, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072917, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041353, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09434, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", 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2.329597, "relative_strength": -47.712021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.578445, "energy": 65.924544, "activity_lines": [ 1.384667, 1.541091, 1.694524, 1.731398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.22, "volume": 2981295, "typical_volume": 16741225.25, "trend": 1.773667, "fair_value": 2.296456, "relative_strength": -50.256178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.776967, "energy": 66.712602, "activity_lines": [ 1.317333, 1.459636, 1.644048, 1.693269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.13, "volume": 2196983, "typical_volume": 16741401.35, "trend": 1.738667, "fair_value": 2.249931, "relative_strength": -51.538092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.035382, "energy": 76.134002, "activity_lines": [ 1.245333, 1.375818, 1.587, 1.651742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.14, "volume": 4187936, "typical_volume": 16855042.35, "trend": 1.706333, "fair_value": 2.173873, "relative_strength": -50.379043, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.695676, "energy": 77.525372, "activity_lines": [ 1.198, 1.307636, 1.532952, 1.613118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.32, "volume": 9541099, "typical_volume": 11177920.8, "trend": 1.678, "fair_value": 2.126604, "relative_strength": -44.346051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.886447, "energy": 69.336403, "activity_lines": [ 1.222, 1.285818, 1.49819, 1.588194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }