{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63cf4067-2d80-498a-b39b-7614a3027cd9", "symbol": "000815", "name": "MCC Meili Cloud Computing Industry Investment Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.064, "architecture_energy": 6.363, "architecture_maturity": 47.761, "architecture_confidence": 48.534, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.64, "rotation_up": 35.79, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 48.74, "rotation_down": 25.68, "downward_expansion": 35.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.850001, 15.288182, 16.367334, 16.772925 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.030001, "trend_reference": 16.522, "distance_from_trend": 0.091272, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.875128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.518299, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.580296, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.265263, "excess_performance": 0.257863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091272, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076165, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.518299, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.476465, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.185803, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147705, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.265263, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.748406, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 616996629, "relative_activity": 1.590602, "balance": 0.748406, "dry_up": 1.094133, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142455, "annualized_volatility": 0.81042, "from_high_reference": -0.23113, "from_low_reference": 0.683473 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.522, "fair_value_reference": 11.875128, "structural_low": 11.97, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.050314, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.040465, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.095238, "worst_return": -0.114007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.048046, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.053161, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.045959, "worst_return": -0.149895, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.527254, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.561932, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.711569, "worst_return": 0.001629, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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15.613454, 17.232381, 16.95929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.12, "volume": 154762900, "typical_volume": 416807196.95, "trend": 15.992, "fair_value": 11.778782, "relative_strength": -16.920366, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.768696, "energy": 68.112482, "activity_lines": [ 13.648, 14.729273, 16.692952, 16.711677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.190001, "volume": 422837629, "typical_volume": 417221417.05, "trend": 16.164667, "fair_value": 11.80641, "relative_strength": 10.569998, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.914666, "energy": 41.22001, "activity_lines": [ 14.264, 14.782182, 16.554857, 16.724452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.18, "volume": 503064619, "typical_volume": 389534976.1, "trend": 16.294, "fair_value": 11.831282, "relative_strength": 5.345015, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.643945, "energy": 28.020562, "activity_lines": [ 14.601334, 14.739636, 16.321143, 16.660925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.030001, "volume": 616996629, "typical_volume": 387901251.75, "trend": 16.522, "fair_value": 11.875128, "relative_strength": 18.580296, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.063832, "energy": 6.362802, "activity_lines": [ 15.850001, 15.288182, 16.367334, 16.772925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }