{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63d25373-caac-445d-8d1d-ac1d0bab26df", "symbol": "002900", "name": "Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 50.245, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.22, "architecture_energy": 39.911, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.57, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.02, "rotation_up": 68.2, "upward_expansion": 41.4, "deceleration": 44.32, "rotation_down": 14.17, "downward_expansion": 16.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.936, 11.098, 10.87081, 11.047957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.48, "trend_reference": 11.401333, "distance_from_trend": 0.182318, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.532338, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.168887, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.988275, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.137553, "excess_performance": 0.130153, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.182318, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079771, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.168887, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178999, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039883, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.350445, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137553, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.828611, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129596960, "relative_activity": 3.277774, "balance": 4.828611, "dry_up": 2.923503, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097866, "annualized_volatility": 0.389686, "from_high_reference": -0.181045, "from_low_reference": 0.460455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.401333, "fair_value_reference": 11.532338, "structural_low": 9.23, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.021988, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.026255, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.306306, "worst_return": -0.236256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.055866, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.045679, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.213078, "worst_return": -0.254456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.100248, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.151217, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.194845, "worst_return": -0.42183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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26555734.2, "trend": 11.412667, "fair_value": 11.546125, "relative_strength": -10.724173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.133612, "energy": 16.318928, "activity_lines": [ 10.609333, 10.291091, 10.56681, 10.908602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.46, "volume": 159614466, "typical_volume": 33782960.2, "trend": 11.367333, "fair_value": 11.536473, "relative_strength": -7.81074, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.71714, "energy": 17.597633, "activity_lines": [ 11.01, 10.516, 10.621571, 10.911656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.48, "volume": 129596960, "typical_volume": 39538098.2, "trend": 11.401333, "fair_value": 11.532338, "relative_strength": 3.988275, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.220451, "energy": 39.910669, "activity_lines": [ 11.936, 11.098, 10.87081, 11.047957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }