{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63dd5a63-4052-421b-afe1-7ce644a70c70", "symbol": "300729", "name": "Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.807, "architecture_energy": 52.4, "architecture_maturity": 81.392, "architecture_confidence": 87.234, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 28.41, "upward_expansion": 13.79, "deceleration": 60.86, "rotation_down": 49.33, "downward_expansion": 78.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.000667, 10.003636, 10.610881, 11.173516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.16, "trend_reference": 11.983795, "distance_from_trend": -0.152188, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.265349, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.287785, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.405813, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.274543, "excess_performance": -0.281943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152188, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090652, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.287785, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133734, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034561, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.274543, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.234889, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13026900, "relative_activity": 1.043808, "balance": 0.234889, "dry_up": 1.018116, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067813, "annualized_volatility": 0.24067, "from_high_reference": -0.362787, "from_low_reference": 0.076271 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.983795, "fair_value_reference": 14.265349, "structural_low": 9.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.017436, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.026319, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.245119, "worst_return": -0.157088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.025174, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.065747, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.331301, "worst_return": -0.165113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042449, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.008743, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.195122, "worst_return": -0.228253, "sufficient": 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-25.809151, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.973466, "energy": 74.442242, "activity_lines": [ 9.884667, 10.249374, 11.016134, 11.600483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.58, "volume": 13977421, "typical_volume": 12806816.4, "trend": 12.193919, "fair_value": 14.331902, "relative_strength": -27.575986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.48854, "energy": 67.744251, "activity_lines": [ 9.761333, 10.047797, 10.824886, 11.423271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.25, "volume": 10815054, "typical_volume": 12696115.05, "trend": 12.087271, "fair_value": 14.300112, "relative_strength": -20.539759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.489859, "energy": 60.600123, "activity_lines": [ 9.912667, 10.018545, 10.715364, 11.297856 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.16, "volume": 13026900, "typical_volume": 12480169.25, "trend": 11.983795, "fair_value": 14.265349, "relative_strength": -24.405813, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.807483, "energy": 52.399625, "activity_lines": [ 10.000667, 10.003636, 10.610881, 11.173516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }