{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "63dec450-7eb7-48b5-83ee-c73216d30324",
    "symbol": "NOVU",
    "name": "Novus Group International AB",
    "exchange": "STO",
    "country": "SE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^OMX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -57.464,
    "architecture_energy": 33.008,
    "architecture_maturity": 25.54,
    "architecture_confidence": 94.695,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.21,
        "rotation_up": 20.63,
        "upward_expansion": 3.38,
        "deceleration": 53.19,
        "rotation_down": 49.64,
        "downward_expansion": 76.71
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        2.988,
        3.014909,
        3.169333,
        3.272215
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 2.9,
    "trend_reference": 3.365333,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.138273,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 3.236795,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104052,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -21.147708,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.070513,
    "excess_performance": -0.132007,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.138273,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002963,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.104052,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.18772,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.211477,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.199991,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.070513,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.608626,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 17060,
      "relative_activity": 0.550529,
      "balance": 0.608626,
      "dry_up": 1.209285,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.15809,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.808712,
      "from_high_reference": -0.486726,
      "from_low_reference": 0.188525
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 3.365333,
      "fair_value_reference": 3.236795,
      "structural_low": 2.44,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 27,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.481481,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.481481,
        "median_excess_return": -0.017238,
        "regime_survival": 0.740741,
        "best_return": 0.305785,
        "worst_return": -0.135217,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.123188,
        "positive_rate": 0.636364,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.363636,
        "median_excess_return": 0.039464,
        "regime_survival": 0.363636,
        "best_return": 0.363636,
        "worst_return": -0.246305,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.024845,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.142857,
        "median_excess_return": -0.061212,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.125,
        "worst_return": -0.248845,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.122806,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.200625,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.363636,
        "worst_return": -0.246088,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.123188,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.117647,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-11-07",
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        "end": "2026-01-16",
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        "return": 0.186207,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2026-02-06",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 3.6,
        "volume": 67004,
        "typical_volume": 86231.9,
        "trend": 3.349333,
        "fair_value": 3.322051,
        "relative_strength": -1.148559,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.714508,
        "energy": 21.331156,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.674667,
          3.601091,
          3.568667,
          3.466753
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 3.62,
        "volume": 14423,
        "typical_volume": 86750.55,
        "trend": 3.361333,
        "fair_value": 3.319615,
        "relative_strength": 0.228069,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.43022,
        "energy": 17.679501,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.637333,
          3.607636,
          3.581333,
          3.484215
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 3.56,
        "volume": 55831,
        "typical_volume": 89415.65,
        "trend": 3.372,
        "fair_value": 3.316795,
        "relative_strength": -4.984779,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.382739,
        "energy": 12.917903,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.602667,
          3.608364,
          3.585143,
          3.497032
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 3.32,
        "volume": 43288,
        "typical_volume": 89112.7,
        "trend": 3.375333,
        "fair_value": 3.310641,
        "relative_strength": -11.071652,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 20.956826,
        "energy": 9.94632,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.506667,
          3.566182,
          3.564571,
          3.493677
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 3.04,
        "volume": 10164,
        "typical_volume": 89004.5,
        "trend": 3.368,
        "fair_value": 3.302564,
        "relative_strength": -17.550168,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -17.411396,
        "energy": 17.27137,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.333333,
          3.474182,
          3.517905,
          3.472043
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 2.96,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 85912.5,
        "trend": 3.365333,
        "fair_value": 3.290128,
        "relative_strength": -19.208221,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -23.8827,
        "energy": 36.329582,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.177333,
          3.368727,
          3.465524,
          3.44572
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 3.18,
        "volume": 12616,
        "typical_volume": 83520.65,
        "trend": 3.377333,
        "fair_value": 3.285,
        "relative_strength": -14.768597,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -17.10629,
        "energy": 39.232461,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.137333,
          3.307636,
          3.436476,
          3.433763
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 3.4,
        "volume": 18924,
        "typical_volume": 82550.6,
        "trend": 3.385333,
        "fair_value": 3.279487,
        "relative_strength": -7.616824,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -24.668766,
        "energy": 37.893248,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.2,
          3.300727,
          3.428381,
          3.435226
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 2.82,
        "volume": 8322,
        "typical_volume": 82416.15,
        "trend": 3.38,
        "fair_value": 3.270128,
        "relative_strength": -24.814052,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -39.598146,
        "energy": 43.521079,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.08,
          3.196364,
          3.363714,
          3.398753
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 3.0,
        "volume": 967,
        "typical_volume": 79787.0,
        "trend": 3.383333,
        "fair_value": 3.262564,
        "relative_strength": -17.550644,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -58.283198,
        "energy": 47.108218,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.053333,
          3.138182,
          3.317333,
          3.374237
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 2.9,
        "volume": 36119,
        "typical_volume": 48489.15,
        "trend": 3.384667,
        "fair_value": 3.254872,
        "relative_strength": -18.771588,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.492918,
        "energy": 49.286214,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.996,
          3.074545,
          3.262667,
          3.343054
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 3.12,
        "volume": 72035,
        "typical_volume": 38732.2,
        "trend": 3.39,
        "fair_value": 3.250513,
        "relative_strength": -13.50908,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -53.637323,
        "energy": 43.602196,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.016,
          3.063636,
          3.237714,
          3.325978
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 3.04,
        "volume": 24681,
        "typical_volume": 34833.25,
        "trend": 3.383333,
        "fair_value": 3.244103,
        "relative_strength": -16.432418,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -51.471539,
        "energy": 31.070548,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.013333,
          3.047273,
          3.208857,
          3.303398
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 2.9,
        "volume": 17060,
        "typical_volume": 30988.35,
        "trend": 3.365333,
        "fair_value": 3.236795,
        "relative_strength": -21.147708,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -57.464035,
        "energy": 33.007646,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.988,
          3.014909,
          3.169333,
          3.272215
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}