{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63e34d7d-e204-471a-a8fb-bbac482891a5", "symbol": "LBRT", "name": "Liberty Energy Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.781, "architecture_energy": 82.446, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.678, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.88, "rotation_up": 8.54, "upward_expansion": 20.11, "deceleration": 37.12, "rotation_down": 78.68, "downward_expansion": 95.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.919333, 22.083818, 25.296639, 26.351002 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 19.94, "trend_reference": 26.706577, "distance_from_trend": -0.253367, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.924895, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053639, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.709379, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.20482, "excess_performance": -0.330445, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.253367, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081702, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.053639, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.788624, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177094, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.799016, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.20482, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.54737, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23616373, "relative_activity": 1.117151, "balance": 0.54737, "dry_up": 1.422354, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168755, "annualized_volatility": 0.659965, "from_high_reference": -0.420011, "from_low_reference": 1.035775 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.706577, "fair_value_reference": 18.924895, "structural_low": 15.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.073952, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.038503, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.131646, "worst_return": -0.18579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.214944, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.152669, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.277419, "worst_return": -0.029563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.253255, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.239152, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.530883, "worst_return": 0.020234, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024414, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.244808, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035734, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.148438, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.270333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.463661, "active": false }, { 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"trend": 26.723017, "fair_value": 18.864962, "relative_strength": 3.501414, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.446283, "energy": 56.337525, "activity_lines": [ 24.628667, 26.223011, 28.025702, 27.90597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.36, "volume": 39496154, "typical_volume": 20090576.05, "trend": 26.695405, "fair_value": 18.879629, "relative_strength": -24.328401, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -65.010812, "energy": 78.590459, "activity_lines": [ 22.004667, 24.338237, 26.943393, 27.301904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.71, "volume": 41603206, "typical_volume": 21013792.25, "trend": 26.693577, "fair_value": 18.898685, "relative_strength": -19.651823, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.219148, "energy": 77.149021, "activity_lines": [ 20.485333, 22.980669, 26.034244, 26.786717 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.94, "volume": 23616373, "typical_volume": 21139823.25, "trend": 26.706577, "fair_value": 18.924895, "relative_strength": -17.709379, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.781276, "energy": 82.445591, "activity_lines": [ 19.919333, 22.083818, 25.296639, 26.351002 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }