{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63e54161-a7f3-4e23-b24d-9703d379a01d", "symbol": "CYPH", "name": "Cypherpunk Technologies Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.227, "architecture_energy": 28.164, "architecture_maturity": 28.79, "architecture_confidence": 88.344, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.46, "rotation_up": 18.71, "upward_expansion": 2.6, "deceleration": 49.88, "rotation_down": 43.73, "downward_expansion": 71.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.6526, 0.657969, 0.762099, 0.775172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.6886, "trend_reference": 0.78569, "distance_from_trend": -0.123573, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.594436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.568123, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.24501, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007781, "excess_performance": -0.195235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123573, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248014, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.568123, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191188, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.674499, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007781, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.139531, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6806468, "relative_activity": 0.388254, "balance": 1.139531, "dry_up": 0.368401, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.373858, "annualized_volatility": 1.490577, "from_high_reference": -0.813887, "from_low_reference": 1.96427 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.78569, "fair_value_reference": 1.594436, "structural_low": 0.4913, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.020344, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.016926, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 1.308219, "worst_return": -0.802471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.3785, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.410289, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.684932, "worst_return": -0.85749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.036362, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.324281, "worst_return": -0.865098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.846807, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.965563, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.157534, "worst_return": -0.890533, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066176, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088968, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.558442, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.156863, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091234, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.26762, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.357208, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.408417, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.677507, 0.747647, 0.825444, 0.820229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.7081, "volume": 6712885, "typical_volume": 18422549.8, "trend": 0.836, "fair_value": 1.631931, "relative_strength": -19.971897, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.748893, "energy": 29.568272, "activity_lines": [ 0.68842, 0.721836, 0.815501, 0.810705 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6215, "volume": 6841565, "typical_volume": 18089267.75, "trend": 0.816717, "fair_value": 1.617838, "relative_strength": -28.910793, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.418855, "energy": 26.874951, "activity_lines": [ 0.666607, 0.689042, 0.796911, 0.796866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5906, "volume": 5472792, "typical_volume": 17900154.2, "trend": 0.798737, "fair_value": 1.60515, "relative_strength": -33.120381, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.807867, "energy": 31.069121, "activity_lines": [ 0.64234, 0.659056, 0.774863, 0.782278 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6886, "volume": 6806468, "typical_volume": 17530953.25, "trend": 0.78569, "fair_value": 1.594436, "relative_strength": -26.24501, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.226761, "energy": 28.164208, "activity_lines": [ 0.6526, 0.657969, 0.762099, 0.775172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }