{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63ec0a81-dd36-4811-a924-2d2f41fef1db", "symbol": "ALALO", "name": "Acheter-Louer.Fr SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.509, "architecture_energy": 70.714, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.53, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 60.96, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.000693, 0.000895, 0.001669, 0.004448 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0006, "trend_reference": 0.010603, "distance_from_trend": -0.943414, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 217154.98407, "distance_from_fair_value": -1.0, "fair_value_direction": "Stable", "relative_strength": -99.600635, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.98125, "excess_performance": -1.034561, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.943414, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.80842, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -1.0, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.996006, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005973, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.98125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.330322, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30863128, "relative_activity": 2.10598, "balance": 0.330322, "dry_up": 2.04262, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.794872, "annualized_volatility": 1.140398, "from_high_reference": -0.9994, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.010603, "fair_value_reference": 217154.98407, "structural_low": 0.0004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 54, "median_return": -0.445649, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.722222, "median_excess_return": -0.429265, "regime_survival": 0.925926, "best_return": 2599.0, "worst_return": -0.8625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.77521, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.722222, "median_excess_return": -0.802907, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 582.333333, "worst_return": -0.986486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.954625, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.98431, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 6.166667, "worst_return": -0.990577, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.764558, "energy": 92.535121, "activity_lines": [ 0.001147, 0.001451, 0.003087, 0.008266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0008, "volume": 37566185, "typical_volume": 13897247.0, "trend": 0.016517, "fair_value": 217475.496878, "relative_strength": -99.54783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.037949, "energy": 71.609991, "activity_lines": [ 0.000973, 0.00128, 0.002621, 0.007056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0006, "volume": 13833903, "typical_volume": 14483571.1, "trend": 0.01383, "fair_value": 217411.394317, "relative_strength": -99.637058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.398414, "energy": 72.081747, "activity_lines": [ 0.0008, 0.001109, 0.002229, 0.006029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0008, "volume": 37475100, "typical_volume": 13744104.05, "trend": 0.01209, "fair_value": 217283.189194, "relative_strength": -99.49802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.659023, "energy": 69.01503, "activity_lines": [ 0.00076, 0.001011, 0.001926, 0.005189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0006, "volume": 30863128, "typical_volume": 14654993.45, "trend": 0.010603, "fair_value": 217154.98407, "relative_strength": -99.600635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.509445, "energy": 70.714371, "activity_lines": [ 0.000693, 0.000895, 0.001669, 0.004448 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }