{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63f17456-30f7-4db8-a0d5-a7d13db5d2d4", "symbol": "XPEVN", "name": "XPeng Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.017, "architecture_energy": 65.434, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.96, "rotation_up": 26.84, "upward_expansion": 11.42, "deceleration": 60.74, "rotation_down": 57.79, "downward_expansion": 84.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 221.43533, 225.996544, 244.224285, 260.108989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 209.119995, "trend_reference": 280.932332, "distance_from_trend": -0.255621, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 279.195833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.250992, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.126708, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.317716, "excess_performance": -0.263049, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.255621, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150902, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.250992, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24068, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.381267, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069552, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.317716, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.027577, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11811, "relative_activity": 5.145733, "balance": 0.027577, "dry_up": 2.749532, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088363, "annualized_volatility": 0.599728, "from_high_reference": -0.592359, "from_low_reference": 0.04513 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 280.932332, "fair_value_reference": 279.195833, "structural_low": 200.089996, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.01042, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.021172, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": -0.240062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.103491, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.090018, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.294787, "worst_return": -0.285792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.075253, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.261559, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.073529, "worst_return": -0.317716, "sufficient": false }, 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"typical_volume": 2500.9, "trend": 290.506666, "fair_value": 280.188205, "relative_strength": -37.004942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.154732, "energy": 68.782556, "activity_lines": [ 229.230667, 235.330728, 254.395762, 269.308882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 224.649994, "volume": 48, "typical_volume": 2029.55, "trend": 285.861666, "fair_value": 279.628269, "relative_strength": -34.384349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.679673, "energy": 61.135746, "activity_lines": [ 228.240665, 231.679454, 249.720428, 265.060064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 209.119995, "volume": 11811, "typical_volume": 2295.3, "trend": 280.932332, "fair_value": 279.195833, "relative_strength": -38.126708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.016918, "energy": 65.434334, "activity_lines": [ 221.43533, 225.996544, 244.224285, 260.108989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }