{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63f25fe7-f8d8-4499-b278-3dadeb6143f4", "symbol": "3090", "name": "Tabuk Cement Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.416, "architecture_energy": 84.28, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.731, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 11.81, "upward_expansion": 20.06, "deceleration": 38.29, "rotation_down": 77.15, "downward_expansion": 95.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.535333, 7.641273, 7.764714, 7.896387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.5, "trend_reference": 8.108333, "distance_from_trend": -0.075026, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.10163, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.324424, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.094817, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.106079, "excess_performance": -0.074249, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075026, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066935, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.324424, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013652, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140948, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017929, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106079, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.669496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 492542, "relative_activity": 0.746301, "balance": 0.669496, "dry_up": 0.700201, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021846, "annualized_volatility": 0.119549, "from_high_reference": -0.311927, "from_low_reference": 0.023192 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.108333, "fair_value_reference": 11.10163, "structural_low": 7.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.0125, "positive_rate": 0.282051, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.018415, "regime_survival": 0.897436, "best_return": 0.120433, "worst_return": -0.086527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.047912, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.027786, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.030464, "worst_return": -0.122234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.089409, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.083259, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.05298, "worst_return": -0.167545, "sufficient": true }, { 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8.036301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.55, "volume": 460500, "typical_volume": 668737.7, "trend": 8.210667, "fair_value": 11.194892, "relative_strength": -14.268574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.689192, "energy": 64.525006, "activity_lines": [ 7.703333, 7.759636, 7.861048, 7.990129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.41, "volume": 411090, "typical_volume": 661649.1, "trend": 8.152333, "fair_value": 11.1475, "relative_strength": -13.700003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.393199, "energy": 89.023525, "activity_lines": [ 7.590667, 7.687818, 7.806524, 7.938473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.5, "volume": 492542, "typical_volume": 659977.4, "trend": 8.108333, "fair_value": 11.10163, "relative_strength": -14.094817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.416287, "energy": 84.279805, "activity_lines": [ 7.535333, 7.641273, 7.764714, 7.896387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }