{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63f4d0af-54f9-41b1-a106-0a946bb572b9", "symbol": "AWESG", "name": "UBS MSCI ACWI Universal UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.546, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.291, "architecture_energy": 65.645, "architecture_maturity": 89.912, "architecture_confidence": 62.037, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.22, "rotation_up": 51.54, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.24, "rotation_down": 29.68, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.329, 21.285182, 20.963372, 20.485426 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.705, "trend_reference": 19.917832, "distance_from_trend": 0.089727, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.662723, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.302608, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.882624, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.159726, "excess_performance": -0.011166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089727, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049028, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.302608, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030554, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028826, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016088, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.159726, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.989025, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33317, "relative_activity": 1.11867, "balance": 0.989025, "dry_up": 2.444053, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017118, "annualized_volatility": 0.134056, "from_high_reference": -0.003672, "from_low_reference": 0.265315 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.917832, "fair_value_reference": 16.662723, "structural_low": 17.91, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.011519, "positive_rate": 0.69697, "directional_follow_through": 0.69697, "median_excess_return": -0.002871, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.207047, "worst_return": -0.158682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.041856, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.001263, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.100171, "worst_return": -0.138291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.074781, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.020569, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.150607, "worst_return": -0.090454, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113986, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129481, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02706, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027786, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040779, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", 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"relative_strength": -1.777514, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.444692, "energy": 64.183284, "activity_lines": [ 21.237333, 21.203273, 20.744443, 20.281558 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.035, "volume": 56357, "typical_volume": 28321.4, "trend": 19.830537, "fair_value": 16.605917, "relative_strength": -3.130111, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.865626, "energy": 55.709807, "activity_lines": [ 21.167333, 21.185636, 20.827648, 20.364493 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.705, "volume": 33317, "typical_volume": 29782.7, "trend": 19.917832, "fair_value": 16.662723, "relative_strength": -2.882624, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.290949, "energy": 65.644992, "activity_lines": [ 21.329, 21.285182, 20.963372, 20.485426 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }