{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63f72f33-ac69-494e-b0d6-78fd5be484bb", "symbol": "EX11", "name": "iShares DivDAX UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.367, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.666, "architecture_energy": 17.738, "architecture_maturity": 16.668, "architecture_confidence": 67.118, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.62, "rotation_up": 45.25, "upward_expansion": 68.82, "deceleration": 49.4, "rotation_down": 21.23, "downward_expansion": 12.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.346, 23.291182, 23.304238, 23.28586 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.469999, "trend_reference": 23.275667, "distance_from_trend": 0.008349, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.834833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.126479, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.532285, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.00824, "excess_performance": -0.182487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008349, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012631, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.126479, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011677, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155323, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042555, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00824, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020861, "annualized_volatility": 0.184571, "from_high_reference": -0.037523, "from_low_reference": 0.149363 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.275667, "fair_value_reference": 20.834833, "structural_low": 21.440001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.026943, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.009418, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.044572, "worst_return": -0.051606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007607, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.060083, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.087777, "worst_return": -0.121469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003155, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.106716, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099189, "worst_return": -0.079195, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.003672, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.145906, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.013818, "worst_return": -0.11479, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001882, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034681, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025149, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036972, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122418, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006629, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013114, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014586, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04567, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", 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16.102387, "activity_lines": [ 23.22, 23.237727, 23.268952, 23.261054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1224.25, "trend": 23.209667, "fair_value": 20.729622, "relative_strength": -15.352594, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.063777, "energy": 12.112709, "activity_lines": [ 23.299667, 23.258909, 23.280905, 23.274817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.995001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1224.25, "trend": 23.223, "fair_value": 20.753423, "relative_strength": -14.822156, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.882816, "energy": 6.310052, "activity_lines": [ 23.224334, 23.212, 23.257119, 23.260968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.110001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1091.95, "trend": 23.240833, "fair_value": 20.775859, "relative_strength": -15.127969, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.464676, "energy": 8.000804, "activity_lines": [ 23.203334, 23.192637, 23.250905, 23.253678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.530001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 893.5, "trend": 23.260333, "fair_value": 20.805372, "relative_strength": -13.192762, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.305812, "energy": 10.963548, "activity_lines": [ 23.309001, 23.248273, 23.281596, 23.272334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.469999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 827.35, "trend": 23.275667, "fair_value": 20.834833, "relative_strength": -15.532285, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.665906, "energy": 17.738221, "activity_lines": [ 23.346, 23.291182, 23.304238, 23.28586 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }