{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63f99933-99b7-45ea-a25e-901c65a4d9ff", "symbol": "002654", "name": "Shenzhen Mason Technologies Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.572, "architecture_energy": 47.804, "architecture_maturity": 15.661, "architecture_confidence": 57.376, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.69, "rotation_up": 8.74, "upward_expansion": 13.71, "deceleration": 54.75, "rotation_down": 71.02, "downward_expansion": 70.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.486, 14.414859, 15.156454, 15.152137 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.09, "trend_reference": 15.17266, "distance_from_trend": -0.137264, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.78205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.024092, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.939891, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.180338, "excess_performance": -0.187738, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137264, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022646, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.024092, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206035, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139399, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023375, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.180338, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.258756, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 292400106, "relative_activity": 1.042838, "balance": 1.258756, "dry_up": 1.040224, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.207116, "annualized_volatility": 0.786498, "from_high_reference": -0.402759, "from_low_reference": 0.255034 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.17266, "fair_value_reference": 12.78205, "structural_low": 10.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.01912, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.132381, "worst_return": -0.038688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.212963, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.099958, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.250712, "worst_return": -0.014286, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.069524, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.162601, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.398148, "worst_return": -0.076923, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.195299, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.229804, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.290598, "worst_return": 0.1, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050476, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002217, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.164214, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.120592, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110678, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060198, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027464, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.237548, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.167188, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.171988, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064496, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.228374, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.273024, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 10.91, "volume": 517937720, "typical_volume": 358304840.55, "trend": 6.879333, "fair_value": 4.574423, "relative_strength": 90.439675, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.188849, 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"fair_value": 12.773012, "relative_strength": -23.491034, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.067588, "energy": 23.452234, "activity_lines": [ 14.620011, 15.805398, 15.778881, 15.558501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.13, "volume": 251534987, "typical_volume": 281450886.25, "trend": 15.205327, "fair_value": 12.768076, "relative_strength": -23.072904, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.433581, "energy": 41.21346, "activity_lines": [ 12.924031, 14.871765, 15.364072, 15.288609 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.09, "volume": 292400106, "typical_volume": 280388826.25, "trend": 15.17266, "fair_value": 12.78205, "relative_strength": -13.939891, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.572281, "energy": 47.803656, "activity_lines": [ 12.486, 14.414859, 15.156454, 15.152137 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }