{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63fa3ae4-5927-4366-9f7c-2353d7242bb9", "symbol": "MLHPE", "name": "Hopening SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -78.102, "architecture_energy": 57.872, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.861, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.21, "rotation_up": 28.42, "upward_expansion": 11.76, "deceleration": 58.17, "rotation_down": 55.52, "downward_expansion": 82.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.142667, 5.208, 5.333048, 5.477505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.98, "trend_reference": 5.683, "distance_from_trend": -0.123702, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.134677, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.302001, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.860156, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.190244, "excess_performance": -0.243555, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123702, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053359, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.302001, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041503, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238602, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02529, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.190244, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.727273, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 321, "relative_activity": 6.808059, "balance": 3.727273, "dry_up": 2.173913, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038925, "annualized_volatility": 0.367714, "from_high_reference": -0.357419, "from_low_reference": 0.15814 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.683, "fair_value_reference": 7.134677, "structural_low": 4.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.030701, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.211268, "worst_return": -0.167883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.034341, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.04208, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.146497, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.060328, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.04079, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.382353, "worst_return": -0.120968, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.533212, "energy": 72.895506, "activity_lines": [ 5.46, 5.516364, 5.675714, 5.810215 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 5.15, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 81.2, "trend": 5.935, "fair_value": 7.155971, "relative_strength": -23.61983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.927534, "energy": 93.148285, "activity_lines": [ 5.356667, 5.434545, 5.612381, 5.757312 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 5.2, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 81.2, "trend": 5.918333, "fair_value": 7.152801, "relative_strength": -21.854095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.25728, "energy": 96.022875, "activity_lines": [ 5.29, 5.374545, 5.558571, 5.709892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.2, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 60.25, "trend": 5.875, "fair_value": 7.14963, "relative_strength": -22.276937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.390414, "energy": 92.638062, "activity_lines": [ 5.24, 5.326364, 5.509286, 5.663548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.2, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 57.2, "trend": 5.831667, "fair_value": 7.14646, "relative_strength": -20.02188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.764985, "energy": 90.366392, "activity_lines": [ 5.21, 5.29, 5.464762, 5.62 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.6, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 57.25, "trend": 5.806667, "fair_value": 7.145854, "relative_strength": -13.226035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.014805, "energy": 63.242354, "activity_lines": [ 5.33, 5.338182, 5.462619, 5.605054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 57.25, "trend": 5.781667, "fair_value": 7.145248, "relative_strength": -12.879481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.149033, "energy": 34.916581, "activity_lines": [ 5.44, 5.380909, 5.462857, 5.59172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.76, "volume": 88, "typical_volume": 59.55, "trend": 5.728667, "fair_value": 7.139258, "relative_strength": -26.279351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.755812, "energy": 57.237659, "activity_lines": [ 5.24, 5.268182, 5.385476, 5.525806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.98, "volume": 321, "typical_volume": 47.15, "trend": 5.683, "fair_value": 7.134677, "relative_strength": -23.860156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.101548, "energy": 57.871972, "activity_lines": [ 5.142667, 5.208, 5.333048, 5.477505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }