{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63fc0e46-c717-414a-bb50-eb775effcb75", "symbol": "IQ", "name": "iQIYI Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.308, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 11.774, "architecture_energy": 30.451, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 41.118, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.25, "rotation_up": 48.35, "upward_expansion": 35.31, "deceleration": 46.51, "rotation_down": 16.69, "downward_expansion": 45.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.26, 1.177498, 1.154992, 1.213063 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.33, "trend_reference": 1.35652, "distance_from_trend": -0.01955, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.720965, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.511203, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.081794, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.324873, "excess_performance": -0.512327, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01955, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18413, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.511203, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097366, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.340818, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135564, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.324873, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.353813, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27375061, "relative_activity": 0.749282, "balance": 1.353813, "dry_up": 0.882431, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083788, "annualized_volatility": 0.571777, "from_high_reference": -0.53169, "from_low_reference": 0.399853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.35652, "fair_value_reference": 2.720965, "structural_low": 0.9501, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.025, "positive_rate": 0.463415, "directional_follow_through": 0.536585, "median_excess_return": -0.02964, "regime_survival": 0.804878, "best_return": 0.591281, "worst_return": -0.29393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.034404, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.077341, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.198083, "worst_return": -0.496018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.070373, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.157151, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.169329, "worst_return": -0.664139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 1.13, "volume": 33881223, "typical_volume": 42981752.5, "trend": 1.450853, "fair_value": 2.83744, "relative_strength": -46.537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.513822, "energy": 51.555198, "activity_lines": [ 1.047787, 1.058087, 1.127528, 1.255391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.19, "volume": 37787597, "typical_volume": 41291070.35, "trend": 1.428853, "fair_value": 2.812953, "relative_strength": -40.550684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.013717, "energy": 36.51879, "activity_lines": [ 1.099413, 1.077804, 1.126406, 1.238562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.22, "volume": 30147789, "typical_volume": 39130061.75, "trend": 1.405853, "fair_value": 2.78026, "relative_strength": -37.325836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.960601, "energy": 25.542938, "activity_lines": [ 1.150373, 1.103156, 1.130093, 1.225087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.27, "volume": 33648271, "typical_volume": 37224356.8, "trend": 1.38052, "fair_value": 2.749812, "relative_strength": -34.470583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.24636, "energy": 24.528042, "activity_lines": [ 1.204667, 1.136509, 1.13959, 1.216323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.33, "volume": 27375061, "typical_volume": 36535071.6, "trend": 1.35652, "fair_value": 2.720965, "relative_strength": -34.081794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.773793, "energy": 30.450628, "activity_lines": [ 1.26, 1.177498, 1.154992, 1.213063 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }