{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63ff7d32-dc52-49ae-ab11-11e9017cfb65", "symbol": "CIG", "name": "C.I. Group Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 5.262, "architecture_energy": 6.341, "architecture_maturity": 45.15, "architecture_confidence": 48.293, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.16, "rotation_up": 33.0, "upward_expansion": 21.93, "deceleration": 51.07, "rotation_down": 34.4, "downward_expansion": 32.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.027333, 0.028364, 0.028429, 0.028301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.03, "trend_reference": 0.028, "distance_from_trend": 0.071429, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.058526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.487404, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.312373, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.5, "excess_performance": 0.307675, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071429, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011765, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.487404, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141756, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183124, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019616, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.5, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.224846, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1386300, "relative_activity": 0.517672, "balance": 0.224846, "dry_up": 0.401081, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.333333, "annualized_volatility": 1.716563, "from_high_reference": -0.571429, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.028, "fair_value_reference": 0.058526, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.035646, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.115385, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.130542, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.543478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.173152, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.596154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"blue", "start": "2023-04-28", "end": "2023-05-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.18, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.83871, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.379731, "energy": 21.544271, "activity_lines": [ 0.03, 0.029636, 0.02881, 0.028495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.03, "volume": 1020700, "typical_volume": 3149175.0, "trend": 0.028333, "fair_value": 0.062115, "relative_strength": -20.596213, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.966028, "energy": 19.519676, "activity_lines": [ 0.03, 0.029818, 0.028952, 0.028602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.03, "volume": 562100, "typical_volume": 2695030.0, "trend": 0.028333, "fair_value": 0.060897, "relative_strength": -20.941343, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.484462, "energy": 15.574979, "activity_lines": [ 0.03, 0.03, 0.029095, 0.02871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.02, "volume": 1327200, "typical_volume": 2633080.0, "trend": 0.028, "fair_value": 0.059679, "relative_strength": -46.146563, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.503722, "energy": 10.465679, "activity_lines": [ 0.026667, 0.028182, 0.028286, 0.028172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.03, "volume": 1386300, "typical_volume": 2677950.0, "trend": 0.028, "fair_value": 0.058526, "relative_strength": -18.312373, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.262384, "energy": 6.340781, "activity_lines": [ 0.027333, 0.028364, 0.028429, 0.028301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }